114 
 WTNT43 KNHC 132035
 TCDAT3
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082007
 500 PM EDT THU SEP 13 2007
  
 CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SMALLER WEAKER LOW
 ROTATING ABOUT A MORE DOMINANT...BROAD...CIRCULATION TO THE
 SOUTHEAST.  THE INITIAL POSITION WILL BE BASED ON A CENTROID
 POSITION OF THE TWO CIRCULATION CENTERS.  THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO
 THE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THIS MORNING...AND
 THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AS 30 KT.     
 
 THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INTENSITY REMAINS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE
 PREVIOUS FORECAST...SUGGESTING A POSSIBILITY OF STRENGTHENING TO A
 TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS.  AFTERWARD...THE INTENSITY
 MODELS INDICATE VERY LITTLE STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE 72 HOUR
 PERIOD...WITH A WEAKENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS
 UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM THE EASTERN
 CARIBBEAN OVER THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS.
  
 INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/5...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE
 PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD GRADUALLY CONTINUE ON A
 GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITHIN WEAK STEERING FLOW OF A
 MID- TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 
 THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT THAN THIS MORNING...WITH
 THE 12Z ECMWF NOW SUGGESTING A MOTION SIMILAR TO THE OTHER MODELS. 
 THE NOGAPS...HOWEVER...SHOWS THE MOST VERTICAL DEPTH WHICH APPEARS
 TO BE INFLUENCING A DRAMATIC TURN TO THE RIGHT TOWARD A
 RETROGRADING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
 DEPRESSION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
 FORECAST...WITH A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO THE RIGHT...AND AGREES WITH
 A BLEND OF ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE WITH THE EXCEPTION
 OF THE NOGAPS. 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      13/2100Z 14.2N  48.4W    30 KT
  12HR VT     14/0600Z 14.5N  49.2W    35 KT
  24HR VT     14/1800Z 15.0N  50.2W    35 KT
  36HR VT     15/0600Z 15.5N  51.4W    35 KT
  48HR VT     15/1800Z 15.9N  52.5W    40 KT
  72HR VT     16/1800Z 17.0N  55.4W    40 KT
  96HR VT     17/1800Z 18.0N  58.0W    35 KT
 120HR VT     18/1800Z 19.1N  60.5W    30 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN