619 
 WTNT43 KNHC 122038
 TCDAT3
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082007
 500 PM EDT WED SEP 12 2007
  
 THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE DEPRESSION HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE SINCE
 THIS MORNING WITH THE CIRCULATION CENTER ESTIMATED NEAR THE EASTERN
 PORTION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
 FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT 35 KT.  SINCE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
 IN THE EXACT CENTER LOCATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30
 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY PASSING ABOUT 60 NM SOUTH OF NOAA
 BUOY 41041...WHICH HAS REPORTED A PEAK 1-MINUTE WIND OF 28 KT AND A
 MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1008.6 MB.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/10. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
 AGREEMENT ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
 DAYS.  THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS A MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW
 DEVELOPS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. 
 THIS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE DEPRESSION TO DECELERATE DURING THE
 NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE
 PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 48 HOURS BUT IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE
 NORTHWARD THEREAFTER...IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF
 HWRF...GFDL...UMKET...AND GFS MODELS.
  
 MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE EASTERLY SHEAR
 CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24
 HOURS AND THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DEPRESSION SHOULD GRADUALLY
 STRENGTHEN.  THE GFDL...HWRF AND SHIPS MODELS BRING THE DEPRESSION
 TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL
 REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW THIS GUIDANCE AND KEEP THE DEPRESSION
 JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH.  AT DAYS 4 AND 5...STRONG
 SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SOUTH OF THE MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW
 ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE INCREASING SHEAR.  THE GFDL RESPONDS TO THIS
 BY WEAKENING THE CYCLONE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL REFLECT SOME
 WEAKENING LATE IN THE PERIOD.
   
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      12/2100Z 13.5N  45.5W    30 KT
  12HR VT     13/0600Z 13.9N  46.7W    35 KT
  24HR VT     13/1800Z 14.3N  47.9W    45 KT
  36HR VT     14/0600Z 14.7N  48.8W    50 KT
  48HR VT     14/1800Z 15.1N  49.8W    55 KT
  72HR VT     15/1800Z 16.2N  52.2W    60 KT
  96HR VT     16/1800Z 17.5N  55.5W    60 KT
 120HR VT     17/1800Z 18.5N  58.5W    55 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BROWN