817 
 WTNT43 KNHC 121440
 TCDAT3
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082007
 1100 AM EDT WED SEP 12 2007
  
 THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS ACQUIRED
 ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO BE DECLARED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...THE
 EIGHTH OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON.  THE CENTER OF THE ELONGATED
 CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE THUNDERSTORM
 ACTIVITY DUE TO SOME EASTERLY SHEAR.  DVORAK T NUMBERS FROM TAFB
 AND SAB SUPPORT 30 KT...WHICH WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY.
 
 MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE
 HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE FASTER DURING THE PAST 6-12 HOURS AND THE
 INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 295/10.  THE
 DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE
 AND THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING
 DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN IN A DAY
 OR SO WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE DEPRESSION TO DECELERATE AND MOVE
 SLOWER THAN CLIMATOLOGY.
 
 THE CURRENT EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY
 OR SO WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING.  THUS...CONDITIONS
 APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.
 BEYOND 72 HOURS....AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED NORTH AND WEST OF
 THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WHICH SHOULD
 HALT ANY ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING.  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      12/1500Z 13.2N  44.6W    30 KT
  12HR VT     13/0000Z 13.6N  45.9W    35 KT
  24HR VT     13/1200Z 14.0N  47.3W    45 KT
  36HR VT     14/0000Z 14.3N  48.4W    50 KT
  48HR VT     14/1200Z 14.6N  49.5W    55 KT
  72HR VT     15/1200Z 15.1N  51.4W    60 KT
  96HR VT     16/1200Z 16.0N  54.5W    60 KT
 120HR VT     17/1200Z 17.0N  57.5W    60 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BROWN