404 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 070853
 TCDEP1
 
 Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number  11
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112018
 300 AM MDT Tue Aug 07 2018
 
 Infrared and microwave satellite imagery suggest that Ileana's
 low-level circulation may have been disrupted by the Sierra
 Madre mountain range when the cyclone passed just offshore of the
 southwestern coast of Mexico and likely opened up into a wave
 between 0000-0400 UTC. However, a strong burst of convection
 containing a large area of cloud tops colder than -80 deg C has
 redeveloped just northeast of the alleged center during the past
 couple of hours, which could help regenerate a new low-level center.
  Thus the system is still being considered to be a tropical cyclone
 until more conclusive data to the contrary become available. The
 initial intensity of 45 kt is based on a Dvorak satellite current
 intensity estimate of T3.0/45 kt from TAFB.
 
 The initial motion estimate is a faster and uncertain 295/20 kt.
 Ileana or its remnants are forecast to maintain a fairly quick
 west-northwestward motion around or within the northeastern and
 northern portions of Hurricane John's outer circulation, with the
 latter system currently located only about 200 nmi southwest of the
 much smaller Ileana. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the
 previous advisory track, and lies close to the consensus model TVCE.
 
 The global and regional hurricane models remain in good agreement on
 Ileana dissipating in less than 18 hours, due in large part from
 strong vertical wind created by the northwesterly outflow associated
 with nearby Hurricane John. Until dissipation occurs, however, only
 slight weakening is expected due to the recent increase in deep
 convection near and to the northeast of the alleged center, and also
 as a result of Ileana's relatively fast forward speed of 20 kt.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  07/0900Z 19.4N 106.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  07/1800Z 20.6N 109.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  08/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Stewart