832 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 050850
 TCDEP1
 
 Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number   3
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112018
 400 AM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018
 
 Convection associated with the depression has increased through the
 early morning, but the system still appears to be sheared from the
 north. A pair of ASCAT passes between 03Z and 04Z revealed that the
 center of the depression is elongated and has reformed to the south,
 closer to the convection. The maximum believable winds in the ASCAT
 data were around 30 kt, and the initial intensity has been set at
 that value.
 
 Little change has been made to the track or intensity forecast,
 however confidence is low. The global and regional dynamical models
 all forecast that a disturbance to the west will develop later today
 and quickly become the dominant cyclone. This should cause the
 depression to dissipate as it becomes entangled in the other
 system's larger circulation. However, there is little agreement
 among the models as to when or where this will occur. On one hand,
 the GFS continues to insist that the depression will dissipate later
 this morning, while the UKMET shows two distinct cyclones through 96
 hours. Further complicating matters, the close proximity of the two
 cyclones is affecting the trackers used to obtain track and
 intensity information from the dynamical models, and most of the
 dynamical tracker output can not be considered representative,
 especially at 48 h and beyond.
 
 Assuming the depression persists for at least a couple more days,
 the ECMWF and HWRF models appear to be the best compromise
 solutions, with both showing the depression accelerating
 northwestward between the disturbance to the west and a mid-level
 ridge to the east, before dissipating in 48-72 h. The NHC track
 forecast therefore leans most heavily on a blend of these models
 and the previous forecast track. The intensity forecast is based
 primarily on the statistical models, since the dynamical tracker
 output appears to be unrepresentative of the actual forecasts.
 Although the official forecast conservatively maintains the
 depression for 72 h, the cyclone could dissipate much sooner than
 currently indicated.
 
 Based on the forecast, any tropical-storm-force winds are expected
 to remain offshore the coast of Mexico.  However, given the low
 confidence in both the track and intensity of the depression,
 interests along the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico should
 monitor its progress in case the track shifts closer to the coast or
 the cyclone strengthens and grows larger than forecast.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  05/0900Z 13.0N  96.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  05/1800Z 13.5N  98.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  06/0600Z 14.6N 100.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  06/1800Z 16.0N 103.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
  48H  07/0600Z 17.5N 105.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
  72H  08/0600Z 20.0N 111.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
  96H  09/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Zelinsky