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 966 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 020843
 TCDEP4
  
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092012
 200 AM PDT SUN SEP 02 2012
  
 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ONLY A SMALL AREA OF
 CONVECTION REMAINING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF ILEANA.  THE
 INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 30 KT ON THIS ADVISORY BASED ON
 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND A 0450 UTC
 ASCAT OVERPASS.  FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND ILEANA IS
 FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY...WITH DISSIPATION
 OCCURRING AROUND THE 96 HOUR PERIOD.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS WESTWARD OR 265/9...WITH A SLIGHT
 ADJUSTMENT SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE BASED ON THE
 AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT OVERPASS.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN
 JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS IT BECOMES
 STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. 
 THE NEW NHC FORECAST TRACK LIES JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
 FORECAST TRACK AND IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE TVCE MULTI-MODEL
 CONSENSUS.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  02/0900Z 22.6N 121.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  02/1800Z 22.5N 122.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  24H  03/0600Z 22.3N 124.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  03/1800Z 21.8N 126.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  04/0600Z 21.3N 127.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  05/0600Z 20.2N 131.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  06/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER ROBERTS
  
 
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