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 048 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 020255
 TCDEP4
  
 TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092012
 800 PM PDT SAT SEP 01 2012
  
 ALTHOUGH ILEANA IS OVER WATERS NEAR 22C...A SMALL AREA OF COLD CLOUD
 TOPS HAVE PERSISTED FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS NEAR THE CENTER. A
 BLEND OF THE LATEST T- AND CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND
 UW-CIMSS SUPPORT MAINTAINING ILEANA AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM
 FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER EVEN COLDER
 WATER DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH STABLE
 AIR TO ITS WEST SHOULD CAUSE ILEANA TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
 REMNANT LOW ON SUNDAY. THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUAL
 WEAKEN DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND DISSIPATE IN
 4 TO 5 DAYS.
 
 THE LATEST SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT ILEANA IS NOW MOVING DUE
 WESTWARD AT ABOUT 7 KT. ILEANA...OR ITS REMNANT LOW...IS EXPECTED
 TO TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT IS
 STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
 SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
 ENVELOPE.
   
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  02/0300Z 23.1N 120.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  02/1200Z 23.0N 121.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  03/0000Z 22.8N 123.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  03/1200Z 22.5N 125.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  04/0000Z 22.1N 127.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  05/0000Z 21.0N 130.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  06/0000Z 19.5N 134.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  07/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
  
 
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