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 450 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 011442
 TCDEP4
  
 TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092012
 800 AM PDT SAT SEP 01 2012
  
 ILEANA CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN AND MOST OF THE DEEP
 CONVECTION HAS NOW DISAPPEARED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT
 BASED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST SATELLITE ESTIMATES...BUT THIS COULD
 BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. WITH THE CYCLONE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE 23C
 ISOTHERM SOON...WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND ILEANA IS EXPECTED TO
 BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY 24 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. THE LOW-LEVEL
 CIRCULATION SHOULD DISSIPATE ENTIRELY BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
 PERIOD. 
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/08. A WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
 FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE SOUTH OF DUE WEST
 AS THE REMNANT LOW IS STEERED BY THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC LOW-LEVEL
 RIDGE. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...
 FOLLOWING THE TREND OF THE LATEST CYCLE OF GLOBAL MODELS. 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  01/1500Z 23.0N 118.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  02/0000Z 23.1N 120.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  02/1200Z 23.2N 122.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  03/0000Z 23.0N 124.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  03/1200Z 22.8N 125.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  04/1200Z 22.5N 129.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  05/1200Z 22.0N 132.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  06/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BRENNAN
  
 
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