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 185 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 301445
 TCDEP4
  
 HURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092012
 800 AM PDT THU AUG 30 2012
  
 THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF ILEANA HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY SINCE
 OVERNIGHT...WITH A WARM SPOT OCCASIONALLY EVIDENT IN THE CENTRAL
 DENSE OVERCAST.  A 1043 UTC AMSU MICROWAVE OVERPASS SHOWS A RAGGED
 DOUBLE EYEWALL STRUCTURE OF THE INNER CORE.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE
 4.0 FROM TAFB AND 4.5 FROM SAB...AND A BLEND OF THESE SUBJECTIVE
 ESTIMATES YIELDS AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 70 KT.  THERE IS A SMALL
 WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING TODAY.  AFTER
 THAT...ILEANA WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND
 INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.  STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD BE WITHIN
 24 HOURS AND ILEANA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 3
 DAYS. 
  
 THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 7 KT.  THIS GENERAL
 MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS ILEANA MOVES
 TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS
 AND BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM...IT SHOULD BEND MORE WESTWARD IN THE
 LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  HOWEVER...BEYOND 72 HOURS...THE GFS AND ECMWF
 REMAIN AT ODDS WITH THE GFS SHOWING A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK...WHILE
 THE ECMWF PREDICTS A WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION OF THE
 CYCLONE.  THE NHC FORECAST REMAINS BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES...BUT
 FAVORS THE MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL WESTWARD MOTION SHOWN BY THE
 EUROPEAN MODEL.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  30/1500Z 20.2N 113.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
  12H  31/0000Z 20.9N 114.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
  24H  31/1200Z 21.7N 115.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
  36H  01/0000Z 22.5N 116.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
  48H  01/1200Z 23.3N 117.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
  72H  02/1200Z 24.0N 120.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  03/1200Z 24.5N 124.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  04/1200Z 25.0N 127.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BROWN
  
 
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