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 414 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 300249
 TCDEP4
  
 HURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092012
 800 PM PDT WED AUG 29 2012
  
 THE CLOUD PATTERN IS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING. THERE
 IS AN INTERMITTENT EYE FEATURE SURROUNDED BY DEEP CONVECTION.
 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...BOTH OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE...ARE
 4.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...SUGGESTING THAT ILEANA HAS REACHED
 HURRICANE STRENGTH WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH
 THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
 INTENSIFICATION...THE CIRCULATION OF ILEANA IS APPROACHING LOWER
 SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND THE CYCLONE WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN
 AT THE SAME INTENSITY FOR ONLY 12 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT ILEANA
 SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.
  
 ILEANA APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8
 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE HAS ALREADY REACHED THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
 SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS HEADING TOWARD A WEAKNESS CAUSED BY AN
 EASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR A GENERAL
 NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...AS THE
 TROUGH LIFTS OUT AND ILEANA WEAKENS OVER COOLER WATER...THE CYCLONE
 SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND BECOME STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
 AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. IN THE LONG RANGE...THE GFS
 AND THE ECMWF ARE IN DISAGREEMENT. THE GFS FORECASTS ILEANA TO
 CONTINUE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WHILE THE ECMWF SUGGESTS
 THAT ILEANA WILL MISS THE TROUGH AND TURN WEST. REGARDLESS OF WHICH
 SOLUTION IS CORRECT...ILEANA IS FORECAST TO BE A WEAK REMNANT LOW
 BY THAT TIME PERIOD.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  30/0300Z 19.1N 113.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
  12H  30/1200Z 20.0N 113.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
  24H  31/0000Z 20.8N 114.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
  36H  31/1200Z 21.5N 115.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
  48H  01/0000Z 22.5N 116.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
  72H  02/0000Z 23.5N 119.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  96H  03/0000Z 24.5N 122.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  04/0000Z 25.0N 125.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER AVILA
  
 
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