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 559 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 291431
 TCDEP4
  
 TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092012
 800 AM PDT WED AUG 29 2012
  
 THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST
 SEVERAL HOURS AND CONSISTS OF A ROUND AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OR 
 CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST NEAR THE CENTER WITH SOME CURVED BANDS. AN
 AVERAGE OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS SUGGESTS AN INITIAL
 INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS. BOTH ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS
 FAVOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING...AND ILEANA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE
 AT ANY TIME TODAY. IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING
 OVER LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES RESULTING IN GRADUAL WEAKENING. 
 THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE STATISTICAL MODEL
 LGEM. 
 
 ILEANA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ABOUT 9 KNOTS AROUND THE
 SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND TOWARD AN
 APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD KEEP
 ILEANA ON THIS GENERAL TRACK FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. DURING THE LAST
 PORTION OF THE FORECAST...ILEANA IS EXPECTED TO BE A WEAK SHALLOW
 SYSTEM AND WILL LIKELY BE STEERED WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
 THE NHC FORECAST WAS SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT NORTHWARD FOLLOWING THE
 SOLUTION OF THE GFS AND THE ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS. 
 
 AN AUTOMATIC STATION IN SOCORRO ISLAND OPERATED BY THE MEXICAN NAVY
 INDICATES THAT THE 34-KNOT WIND RADII IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT HAS
 EXPANDED.
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  29/1500Z 18.2N 112.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
  12H  30/0000Z 19.0N 113.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
  24H  30/1200Z 20.0N 114.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
  36H  31/0000Z 21.0N 115.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
  48H  31/1200Z 21.5N 116.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
  72H  01/1200Z 23.0N 118.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
  96H  02/1200Z 23.5N 121.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 120H  03/1200Z 24.0N 126.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER AVILA
  
 
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