452 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 290830
 TCDEP4
  
 TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092012
 200 AM PDT WED AUG 29 2012
  
 ILEANA HAS STRENGTHENED A LITTLE MORE TONIGHT. SATELLITE INTENSITY
 ESTIMATES WERE A UNANIMOUS 55 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS.
 THEREFORE...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 55 KT.
 ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE
 STORM REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WARM
 WATER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE LGEM AND BRINGS
 ILEANA TO HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 24 HOURS. IN A COUPLE OF
 DAYS...COOLER WATERS ALONG THE EXPECTED TRACK COMBINED WITH AN
 INCREASE IN SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND A DRIER AIRMASS SHOULD CAUSE A
 WEAKENING TREND. ILEANA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 4 TO
 5 DAYS WHEN IT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR
 22C.
  
 THE CYCLONE IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 8 KT. THIS GENERAL
 HEADING WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING
 THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS AS THE STORM MOVES TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE
 RIDGE CAUSED BY A TROUGH WELL OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. AFTER 48
 HOURS...ILEANA SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN WESTWARD AS A RIDGE REBUILDS
 TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE
 FASTER AND SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  29/0900Z 17.6N 111.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
  12H  29/1800Z 18.5N 112.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
  24H  30/0600Z 19.5N 113.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
  36H  30/1800Z 20.3N 114.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
  48H  31/0600Z 20.9N 115.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
  72H  01/0600Z 21.9N 118.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
  96H  02/0600Z 22.5N 121.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 120H  03/0600Z 23.0N 125.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER CANGIALOSI