108 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 290237
 TCDEP4
  
 TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092012
 800 PM PDT TUE AUG 28 2012
  
 ILEANA APPEARS TO HAVE STRENGTHENED A LITTLE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL
 HOURS. THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS EXPANDED SLIGHTLY...AND
 CONVECTIVE CURVED BANDS...ALTHOUGH BROKEN AND NOT VERY DEEP...EXIST
 IN MOST QUADRANTS. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT 0000 UTC WERE 45 KT
 AND 50 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY. THE ADT VALUES FROM
 UW-CIMSS WERE NEAR 50 KT. BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL
 WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 50 KT. ADDITIONAL SLOW STRENGTHENING
 SEEMS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS ILEANA REMAINS IN A
 LOW WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...IN A MOIST AIRMASS...AND OVER WARM
 WATER. GIVEN THE EXPECTED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS...ILEANA IS FORECAST
 TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR SO. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE
 IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE OVER SUB-26C WATERS AND INTO MODERATE
 SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR. THESE MORE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE
 THE SYSTEM TO STEADILY WEAKEN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
 THE PREVIOUS ONE AND NEAR THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.
  
 THE TROPICAL STORM HAS TURNED NORTHWESTWARD WITH A FORWARD SPEED OF
 ABOUT 9 KT. THIS HEADING WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
 EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS A TROUGH MOVES TOWARD CALIFORNIA. A
 TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR EVEN THE WEST IS EXPECTED BEYOND 3
 DAYS AS ILEANA BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM AND IS STEERED BY THE
 LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE
 NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...TRENDING TOWARD THE CONSENSUS AIDS.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  29/0300Z 17.0N 111.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
  12H  29/1200Z 17.8N 112.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
  24H  30/0000Z 18.7N 113.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
  36H  30/1200Z 19.6N 114.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
  48H  31/0000Z 20.3N 115.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
  72H  01/0000Z 21.5N 117.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
  96H  02/0000Z 22.2N 120.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 120H  03/0000Z 22.5N 124.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER CANGIALOSI