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 087 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 272042
 TCDEP4
  
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092012
 200 PM PDT MON AUG 27 2012
  
 SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED A FEW
 HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS DEVELOPED
 ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. IN
 ADDITION...RECENT MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
 HAS BECOME WELL DEFINED. THEREFORE...THE LOW IS NOW CLASSIFIED AS A
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION...THE NINTH OF THE EAST PACIFIC SEASON. THE
 INITIAL INTENSITY IS 30 KT...THOUGH SOME ESTIMATES SUGGEST IT COULD
 BE A LITTLE STRONGER. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO GAIN STRENGTH
 DURING THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
 EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE. AFTER DAY 4...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
 MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS...AND THAT SHOULD END THE STRENGTHENING
 TREND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE INTENSITY
 GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH LGEM.
  
 THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 11 KT ON THE
 SOUTH SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
 THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO AS THE
 RIDGE REMAINS THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE. AFTER THAT...THE GLOBAL
 MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE WEAKENING DUE TO THE COMBINED INFLUENCES OF
 ATLANTIC TROPICAL STORM ISAAC MOVING OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S.
 AND A TROUGH MOVING TOWARD CALIFORNIA. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD
 CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD. THE RIDGE
 COULD REBUILD TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM BY THE END OF THE
 FORECAST PERIOD CAUSING IT TO TURN BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE CONSENSUS AIDS...TVCA AND TV15...AND
 KEEPS THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE WELL OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF
 MEXICO.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  27/2100Z 15.1N 107.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  28/0600Z 15.6N 108.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  28/1800Z 16.2N 110.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  29/0600Z 16.6N 111.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
  48H  29/1800Z 17.4N 112.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
  72H  30/1800Z 19.0N 112.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
  96H  31/1800Z 20.4N 113.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 120H  01/1800Z 22.0N 117.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
  
 
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