599 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 260241
 TCDEP5
 HURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102006
 800 PM PDT FRI AUG 25 2006
  
 AN EYE WAS STILL BARELY APPARENT AT 00Z...AND DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS
 WERE STILL 4.0 WHICH SUPPORTS MAINTAINING THE ADVISORY INTENSITY AT
 65 KT.  SINCE THEN...HOWEVER...THE EYE HAS COMPLETELY DISAPPEARED
 AND THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED A LITTLE...SO ILEANA WILL PROBABLY
 WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM SHORTLY.  SSTS BENEATH THE SYSTEM ARE
 NEAR 25 CELSIUS AND WILL CONTINUE TO COOL ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK
 DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THEREFORE A STEADY WEAKENING IS
 FORECAST AND ILEANA IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW
 WITHIN ABOUT 48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
 THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH AND THE CURRENT ESTIMATE IS
 310/6.  A TURN TO THE LEFT OR WEST IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT
 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE WEAKENING TROPICAL CYCLONE BECOMES
 INCREASINGLY SHALLOW AND STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES.  THE
 EVENTUAL REMNANT LOW SHOULD CONTINUE WESTWARD AT ABOUT 6 KT UNTIL
 IT DISSIPATES IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      26/0300Z 22.3N 117.9W    65 KT
  12HR VT     26/1200Z 22.7N 118.7W    55 KT
  24HR VT     27/0000Z 23.0N 119.9W    45 KT
  36HR VT     27/1200Z 23.1N 121.3W    35 KT
  48HR VT     28/0000Z 23.2N 122.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     29/0000Z 23.5N 125.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     30/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KNABB