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 497 
 FOPZ15 KNHC 241438
 PWSEP5
 HURRICANE ILEANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  13                
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102006               
 1500 UTC THU AUG 24 2006                                            
                                                                     
 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ILEANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
 85 KTS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR.                                       
                                                                     
 CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
    ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
    ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
    ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
 FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                     
 PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
     IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
         AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
    (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
         12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                     
 PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
 X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
 LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
    PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                     
 Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
    PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
    HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                     
                                                                     
   - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                     
                FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
   TIME       12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
 PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
              00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
                                                                     
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                     
 ISLA CLARION   34  3   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
  
                                                                     
   - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                     
                FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
   TIME       12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
 PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
              00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
                                                                     
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
  HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                     
  12 212N 1161W 34 96   2(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
  12 212N 1161W 50 81   5(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)
  12 212N 1161W 64 40   9(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)
  
  24 219N 1173W 34 52  25(77)   5(82)   X(82)   1(83)   X(83)   X(83)
  24 219N 1173W 50 10  31(41)   4(45)   X(45)   X(45)   X(45)   X(45)
  24 219N 1173W 64  1  13(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
  
  36 224N 1184W 34  8  32(40)  14(54)   2(56)   1(57)   X(57)   1(58)
  36 224N 1184W 50  1   8( 9)   9(18)   1(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
  36 224N 1184W 64  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
  
  48 228N 1192W 34  3  14(17)  18(35)   3(38)   3(41)   1(42)   X(42)
  48 228N 1192W 50  X   2( 2)   6( 8)   2(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)
  48 228N 1192W 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
  
  
  72 230N 1210W 34  1   3( 4)   5( 9)   4(13)   4(17)   2(19)   1(20)
  72 230N 1210W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
  72 230N 1210W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
  
  
  96 230N 1230W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)
  96 230N 1230W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
  96 230N 1230W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
  
  
 120 230N 1260W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)
 120 230N 1260W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 120 230N 1260W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
  
                - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
 FCST MAX WIND     75     60      50      40      30      25      20
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
  
                                                                     
 $$                                                                  
 FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN                                                    
                                                                     
                                                                     
 
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