466
FOPZ15 KNHC 220850
PWSEP5
TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006
0900 UTC TUE AUG 22 2006
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 17(17) 43(60) 9(69) 3(72) X(72) 1(73)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 17(17) 11(28) 1(29) 1(30) X(30)
ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11)
ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 15(16) 31(47) 17(64) 2(66) X(66)
ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 12(29) 1(30) X(30)
ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) X(14) X(14)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 150N 1073W 34 95 3(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98)
12 150N 1073W 50 33 19(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52)
12 150N 1073W 64 5 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
24 163N 1095W 34 17 68(85) 7(92) X(92) X(92) 1(93) X(93)
24 163N 1095W 50 X 45(45) 14(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59)
24 163N 1095W 64 X 13(13) 8(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22)
36 176N 1116W 34 1 24(25) 49(74) 12(86) 1(87) X(87) X(87)
36 176N 1116W 50 X 2( 2) 36(38) 13(51) 2(53) X(53) X(53)
36 176N 1116W 64 X X( X) 15(15) 8(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24)
48 188N 1136W 34 X 3( 3) 27(30) 35(65) 13(78) 1(79) X(79)
48 188N 1136W 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 28(33) 10(43) 1(44) X(44)
48 188N 1136W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 6(20) 1(21) X(21)
72 205N 1165W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 33(48) 8(56) X(56)
72 205N 1165W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 4(24) 1(25)
72 205N 1165W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) X(10)
96 215N 1190W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 13(32) 1(33)
96 215N 1190W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9)
96 215N 1190W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)
120 225N 1215W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 2(13)
120 225N 1215W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
120 225N 1215W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 55 70 80 90 85 65 40
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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