211 
 WTNT44 KNHC 140259
 TCDAT4
 TROPICAL STORM IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  52
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
 1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2008
  
 IKE STILL EXHIBITS SOLID AND WELL-DEFINED SPIRAL BANDS IN RADAR
 IMAGERY AND CERTAINLY STILL QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
 SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KT WERE REPORTED EAST OF THE CENTER AT
 TEXARKANA AT SYNOPTIC TIME...AND THE BAND THAT PRODUCED THOSE WINDS
 HAS NOT YET PASSED OVER ANOTHER SURFACE OBSERVING SITE.  RADAR
 VELOCITIES FROM SHREVEPORT AND LITTLE ROCK DO NOT PROVIDE MUCH
 EVIDENCE THAT THE OVERALL CIRCULATION HAS WEAKENED THIS
 EVENING...SO I AM COMPELLED TO ASSUME THAT IKE IS STILL PRODUCING
 SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE SOMEWHERE AT THE
 SURFACE...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT.  SURFACE
 OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS STILL RATHER LOW
 AT ABOUT 982 MB.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS STILL ANTICIPATED AS IKE
 PROCEEDS NORTHEASTWARD OVER LAND...ALTHOUGH AS AN EXTRATROPICAL
 CYCLONE IT COULD EVENTUALLY PRODUCE GALE-FORCE WINDS NEAR OR OVER
 THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND OVER ATLANTIC CANADA IN A COUPLE
 OF DAYS.
 
 ROUNDING THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
 STATES...IKE IS IN THE PROCESS OF TURNING INTO THE MID-LATITUDE
 WESTERLIES...AND MY BEST ESTIMATE OF THE MOTION AT ADVISORY TIME IS
 025/21.  EVEN THOUGH IKE WILL LIKELY LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
 IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS...MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW IKE
 REMAINING A DISTINCT ENTITY AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH AT
 LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST THEREFORE
 SHOWS POINTS OUT TO 48 HOURS.  BEYOND THAT TIME...THE EXTRATROPICAL
 VERSION OF IKE SHOULD GRADUALLY MERGE WITH A LARGER LOW AT VERY
 HIGH LATITUDES.
 
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      14/0300Z 34.3N  93.9W    35 KT
  12HR VT     14/1200Z 37.4N  91.2W    30 KT...INLAND
  24HR VT     15/0000Z 42.2N  82.7W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  36HR VT     15/1200Z 46.8N  71.6W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  48HR VT     16/0000Z 51.0N  59.2W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  72HR VT     17/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KNABB