968 
 WTNT44 KNHC 132053
 TCDAT4
 TROPICAL STORM IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  51
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
 500 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2008
  
 IKE IS STEADILY WINDING DOWN AS A TROPICAL STORM...AND SURFACE
 OBSERVATIONS AND DOPPLER VELOCITY DATA INDICATE THAT IKE IS BARELY
 ABOVE TROPICAL STORM THRESHOLD...DESPITE THE RATHER LOW PRESSURE OF
 980.7 MB RECENTLY REPORTED AT TYLER TEXAS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING
 SHOULD OCCUR AS IKE MOVES FARTHER INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN
 TEXAS...AND THE CYCLONE COULD WEAKEN INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
 BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS LATER TONIGHT. IKE
 IS FORECAST OT MERGE WITH A STOUT COLD FRONT IN 24 TO 36 HOURS...
 AFTER WHICH THE CYCLONE COULD BECOME A FAIRLY STRONG MID-LATITUDE
 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER-MIDWEST...AND THEN OVER THE
 NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IN 48 HOURS.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/16.  IKE CONTINUES TO ROUND THE
 WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
 GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG
 AGREEMENT ON A RAPID NORTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH ARKANSAS...
 MISSOURI...ILLINOIS..AND INDIANA FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
 HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN MANY
 OF THE GLOBAL MODELS IN ANTICIPATION OF THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL
 CIRCULATIONS BECOMING DECOUPLED FROM THE LOW-LEVELS...AND THEN
 ACCELERATING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HOSTILE
 VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS OF MORE THAN 110 KT. THE FORECAST TRACK
 IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND THE TIMING OF
 EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS BASED ON INPUT FROM THE NOAA
 HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER.
  
 ALTHOUGH IKE IS QUICKLY DEGENERATING AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
 ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR
 TORNADOES TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN TEXAS...WESTERN
 LOUISIANA...AND ARKANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
 PRODUCING FLOODING WILL REMAIN A THREAT AS WELL.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      13/2100Z 32.4N  95.3W    40 KT...INLAND
  12HR VT     14/0600Z 35.1N  93.9W    30 KT...INLAND
  24HR VT     14/1800Z 38.9N  88.9W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
  36HR VT     15/0600Z 43.0N  80.3W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
  48HR VT     15/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL ZONE
  
 $$
 FORECASTER STEWART