975 
 WTNT44 KNHC 080300
 TCDAT4
 HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
 1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 07 2008
 
 SATELLITE AND CUBAN RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT IKE MADE
 LANDFALL AROUND 0145 UTC NEAR CABO LUCRECIA.  SATELLITE MICROWAVE
 DATA SUGGESTED THAT AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT OCCURRED SHORTLY BEFORE
 LANDFALL BUT IMAGES FROM THE GRAN PIEDRA RADAR IN CUBA SUGGESTED
 THAT THE INNER EYEWALL WITH A DIAMETER OF ABOUT 20 N MI WAS STILL
 INTACT AS THE CENTER CROSSED THE COAST.  SFMR AND DROPSONDE
 OBSERVATIONS FROM A NOAA RESEARCH AIRCRAFT MISSION INDICATE THAT
 IKE PROBABLY RE-STRENGTHENED TO 110-115 KT BEFORE LANDFALL IN
 EASTERN CUBA.  REGARDLESS...WEAKENING IS NOW EXPECTED AS THE CENTER
 MOVES OVER THE LANDMASS OF CUBA.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
 SHOWS LESS WEAKENING THAN INDICATED BY THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL...TO
 ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THE CENTER EMERGING OVER WATER SOONER
 THAN EXPECTED.  ONCE IKE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE
 COMBINATION OF WARM WATERS AND FAIRLY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD
 RESULT IN STRENGTHENING....HOWEVER THERE IS GREAT UNCERTAINTY AS TO
 HOW MUCH THE HURRICANE WILL INTENSIFY IN 3 TO 5 DAYS.
 
 INITIAL MOTION IS WESTWARD OR 270/11.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE
 BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST OR TO THE FORECAST REASONING.  THE
 STEERING CURRENT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH
 AND NORTHEAST OF IKE IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE TRACK TO GRADUALLY
 BEND TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND THE
 TRACK MODELS ARE FAIRLY WELL CLUSTERED ON A TRACK ALONG MUCH OF
 CUBA.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AFTER IKE IS PREDICTED TO
 MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW A
 WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE THAT COULD TURN THE HURRICANE MORE NORTHWARD. 
 HOWEVER A NUMBER OF MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH OF A WEAKNESS OR A
 TURN.  SUFFICE TO SAY THAT IT IS SIMPLY TOO EARLY TO SAY WHAT
 PORTION OF THE GULF COAST WILL ULTIMATELY BE AFFECTED BY IKE.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      08/0300Z 21.1N  75.8W   105 KT
  12HR VT     08/1200Z 21.4N  77.6W    90 KT...INLAND
  24HR VT     09/0000Z 22.1N  79.9W    80 KT...INLAND
  36HR VT     09/1200Z 22.8N  81.7W    70 KT...INLAND
  48HR VT     10/0000Z 23.6N  83.5W    80 KT...OVER WATER
  72HR VT     11/0000Z 25.0N  86.4W    90 KT
  96HR VT     12/0000Z 26.5N  89.0W   100 KT
 120HR VT     13/0000Z 28.0N  92.0W   100 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER PASCH