681 
 WTNT44 KNHC 070856
 TCDAT4
 HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
 500 AM EDT SUN SEP 07 2008
  
 THE EYE OF IKE PASSED DIRECTLY OVER THE TURKS ISLANDS DURING THE
 PAST SEVERAL HOURS. AN AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SITE IN THE
 TURKS ISLANDS REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 99 KT AND A PRESSURE OF
 975.3 MB AT 0300 UTC. NO ADDITIONAL REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM
 THAT STATION. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY
 REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 948 MB AND A PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL OF
 121 KT. THIS SUPPORTS MAINTAINING THE INTENSITY AT 115 KT.
  
 IKE HAS BEEN MOVING ON A MOTION JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST FOR THE PAST
 SEVERAL HOURS AND THE INTIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/13. IT IS A
 LITTLE TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF THE MUCH ANTICIPATED WESTWARD TURN
 HAS BEGUN. THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED...AS IKE IS
 EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION FOR ANOTHER DAY
 OR SO...BEFORE TURNING MORE WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE RIDGE TO THE
 NORTH WEAKENS A LITTLE. THE TRACK GUIDANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS APPEARS
 TO HAVE STOPPED ITS SOUTHWARD SHIFTS. IN FACT...BOTH THE GFDL AND
 HWRF HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE NORTHWARD...PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO THE
 ADDITIONAL DATA PROVIDED BY THE G-IV DROPSONDE MISSION LAST
 EVENING. DURING THE 3-5 DAY TIME FRAME THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE
 SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE GFS...UKMET...AND ECMWF ALONG THE
 LEFT OR SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE...WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF ON
 THE RIGHT SIDE. THE NEW NHC TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY NORTH
 OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. IT IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE
 GUIDANCE DURING THE 36 HOURS...AND THEREAFTER IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL
 CONSENSUS.
  
 CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE CENTER OF
 IKE NEAR THE ISLAND OF CUBA. THEREAFTER...THE INTENSITY IS
 DEPENDANT ON HOW LONG IKE INTERACTS WITH LAND. WITH THE NEW TRACK
 FORECAST UP THE MIDDLE OF THE ISLAND...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A
 LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADIVSORY. ONCE IKE MOVES INTO THE
 SOUTHEASTERN GULF...CONIDITIONS APPREAR FAVORABLE FOR
 STRENGTHENING...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS STEADY
 INTENSIFICATION AT DAYS 4 AND 5.
   
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      07/0900Z 21.1N  72.2W   115 KT
  12HR VT     07/1800Z 21.0N  74.2W   120 KT
  24HR VT     08/0600Z 21.2N  76.6W   125 KT...INLAND
  36HR VT     08/1800Z 21.8N  79.0W    85 KT...INLAND
  48HR VT     09/0600Z 22.5N  81.1W    65 KT...INLAND
  72HR VT     10/0600Z 24.5N  84.5W    80 KT
  96HR VT     11/0600Z 26.0N  87.0W    95 KT
 120HR VT     12/0600Z 27.0N  89.5W   100 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BROWN