447 
 WTNT44 KNHC 070248
 TCDAT4
 HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
 1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 06 2008
  
 AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED 947 MB AND SURFACE
 WINDS OF 114 KNOTS ON ITS LAST PENETRATION BEFORE RETURNING TO BASE
 A FEW HOURS AGO.  ANOTHER PLANE WILL CHECK IKE AROUND 6 UTC. SINCE
 THEN...SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW A DISTINCT EYE AND
 EXCELLENT OUTFLOW. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 115 KNOTS.  THE
 ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING OR AT LEAST
 TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY UNTIL IKE REACHES EASTERN CUBA IN
 ABOUT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...IKE WILL BE MOVING OVER OR NEAR THE
 COAST OF CUBA FOR ABOUT TWO DAYS. THIS MOST CERTAINLY WILL CAUSE
 SOME WEAKENING. HOWEVER...ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION NORTH OR SOUTH OF
 THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD KEEP THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE OVER WATER
 AND THE ANTICIPATED WEAKENING PERHAPS WILL NOT OCCUR.  ONCE IKE
 MOVES OUT OF CUBA...AND MOVE TO THE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO IT COULD
 REGAIN SOME OF THE FORMER INTENSITY AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST. IT INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE HWRF MAKES IKE AN INTENSE
 HURRICANE AGAIN...AND GLOBAL MODELS...PRIMARILY THE GFS...MAKE IKE
 A VERY LARGE HURRICANE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
  
 IKE HESITATED A LITTLE EARLIER TODAY BUT IT HAS RESUMED ITS
 WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREE HEADING AT 13 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE
 STILL HAS 24 TO 36 HOURS BEFORE THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD...SO A
 GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. BY THEN...IKE
 SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK OVER WESTERN
 CUBA...TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.  THE BULK OF THE
 DYNAMICAL MODELS IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...THEREFORE I HAVE CONFIDENCE
 IN THE TRACK FORECAST...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO KNOW IF IKE
 WILL MOVE OVER CUBA OR OVER WATER SINCE CUBA IS LONG BUT NARROW.
 HOWEVER...I AM A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT THAT IN FIVE DAYS...THERE
 WILL BE A LARGE HURRICANE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.  THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS SINCE MOST
 OF THE TIMES...THIS IS A VERY GOOD OPTION.  UNANIMOUSLY...TRACK
 MODELS HAVE SHIFTED WESTWARD TONIGHT AND I HAVE DONE THE SAME WITH
 THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.
  
  
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      07/0300Z 21.2N  70.9W   115 KT
  12HR VT     07/1200Z 21.0N  73.0W   120 KT
  24HR VT     08/0000Z 20.9N  75.5W   125 KT
  36HR VT     08/1200Z 21.0N  78.0W    95 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA
  48HR VT     09/0000Z 21.7N  80.0W    80 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA 
  72HR VT     10/0000Z 23.5N  83.5W    85 KT...OVER WATER
  96HR VT     11/0000Z 25.0N  86.0W    95 KT
 120HR VT     12/0000Z 26.5N  89.0W   100 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER AVILA