289 
 WTNT41 KNHC 122038
 TCDAT1
 HURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112010
 500 PM AST SUN SEP 12 2010
  
 IGOR CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AT A RAPID PACE.  DVORAK INTENSITY
 ESTIMATES AND THE UW-CIMSS ADT HAVE INCREASED FURTHER...AND THE
 INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY UPWARD TO 120 KT BASED ON A
 COMPROMISE OF THESE DATA AND THE LATEST SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATE. 
 THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED TO SHOW SOME
 FURTHER STRENGTHENING AND A PEAK INTENSITY AT DAY 3 OF 135
 KT...SIMILAR TO SHIPS MODEL. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING AND IS BASED
 PRIMARILY ON THE ICON CONSENSUS MODEL. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
 FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH DUE TO EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES ARE
 POSSIBLE...HOWEVER...THERE IS LITTLE SKILL IN FORECASTING THE
 TIMING OF THESE CYCLES.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 270/12. THE TRACK FORECAST
 PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED FOR THIS ADVISORY...HOWEVER THERE IS
 STILL CONSIDERABLE DYNAMICAL MODEL SPREAD AFTER 36 HOURS.  THE
 HWRF...UKMET AND ECMWF REMAIN TO THE LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS AND ARE
 SLIGHTLY SLOWER...WHILE THE OTHER REGIONAL AND GLOBAL MODELS
 SUGGEST A MORE PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS WITH TIME IN THE MID- TO
 UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED TO THE RIGHT OF
 THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AFTER DAY 3...CLOSER TO THE TVCN CONSENSUS
 MODEL...BUT STILL TO THE LEFT OUT OF RESPECT TO THE RELIABLE ECMWF
 MODEL.
   
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      12/2100Z 17.7N  46.9W   120 KT
  12HR VT     13/0600Z 17.8N  48.7W   125 KT
  24HR VT     13/1800Z 18.1N  50.8W   125 KT
  36HR VT     14/0600Z 18.7N  52.6W   130 KT
  48HR VT     14/1800Z 19.4N  54.3W   130 KT
  72HR VT     15/1800Z 21.3N  57.1W   135 KT
  96HR VT     16/1800Z 23.5N  60.0W   125 KT
 120HR VT     17/1800Z 25.8N  62.9W   120 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN