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 895 
 WTNT41 KNHC 111449
 TCDAT1
 TROPICAL STORM IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112010
 1100 AM AST SAT SEP 11 2010
  
 ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED...VISIBLE SATELLITE
 IMAGES SHOW A BANDING EYE PRESENTATION WITH IGOR.  WHILE THE
 WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTION HAS LED TO A DECREASE IN DVORAK
 T-NUMBERS...IT IS PREMATURE TO LOWER THE INTENSITY AND 60 KT WILL BE
 KEPT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  
 
 ALTHOUGH EASTERLY SHEAR REMAINS PRESENT...IT HAS DECREASED SINCE
 YESTERDAY AND IS FORECAST TO FURTHER DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT DAY
 OR SO.  AROUND THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER 
 WATERS WARMER THAN 28C.  THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PROMOTE GRADUAL
 STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT-TERM...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE
 SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  INTERESTINGLY...
 WHILE THE STATISTICAL MODELS MAKE IGOR A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...THE
 GFDL AND HWRF MODELS SHOW SOME WEAKENING WITH IGOR BEFORE
 RESTRENGTHENING THE CYCLONE IN A FEW DAYS.  AT THIS POINT...I AM
 INCLINED TO LEAN ON THE STATISTICAL MODELS AT THE END OF THE
 PERIOD GIVEN THE FORECAST UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN...AND HAVE RAISED
 THE WINDS FOR THAT TIME.  
 
 MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGEST THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED A BIT AND
 IS MOVING 275/17.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
 WESTWARD TRACK OF IGOR FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS RIDGING REMAINS
 ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.  IN ABOUT 3 DAYS...THE WESTERN PART OF THE
 RIDGE WEAKENS DUE TO A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.  THIS PATTERN
 SHOULD ALLOW IGOR TO GAIN A BIT MORE LATITUDE AND SLOW DOWN.  WHILE
 THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...THERE ARE
 SOME LARGE SPEED DIFFERENCES...AS THE ECMWF IS SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER
 THAN MOST OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE.  THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
 PREVIOUS ONE...ON THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SIDES OF THE GUIDANCE
 ENVELOPE...ATTEMPTING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MODEL TENDENCIES OF BEING
 TOO SLOW AND POLEWARD WITH LOW-LATITUDE SYSTEMS.  
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      11/1500Z 17.4N  39.5W    60 KT
  12HR VT     12/0000Z 17.5N  42.0W    65 KT
  24HR VT     12/1200Z 17.6N  44.9W    70 KT
  36HR VT     13/0000Z 17.7N  47.5W    80 KT
  48HR VT     13/1200Z 17.7N  49.7W    90 KT
  72HR VT     14/1200Z 18.0N  53.5W   105 KT
  96HR VT     15/1200Z 19.5N  56.5W   110 KT
 120HR VT     16/1200Z 21.0N  59.5W   110 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BLAKE
  
 
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