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 883 
 WTNT41 KNHC 110835
 TCDAT1
 TROPICAL STORM IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112010
 500 AM AST SAT SEP 11 2010
  
  
 IGOR IS STRENGTHENING AND IN FACT...THERE WAS A PERIOD FOR ABOUT TWO
 HOURS...BETWEEN 04 AND 06 UTC THAT A SMALL EYE-LIKE FEATURE BECAME
 APPARENT ON SATELLITE. HOWEVER...SINCE THEN...SUCH FEATURE HAS
 BECOME INTERMITTENT...OTHERWISE I COULD HAVE DECLARED IGOR A
 HURRICANE. ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BETTER ORGANIZED...THE
 OVERALL CONVECTION HAS DECREASED A LITTLE AND NOW CONSISTS OF TWO
 WELL-DEFINED CYCLONICALLY CURVED BANDS LOCATED PRIMARILY TO THE
 SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE OUTFLOW HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED IN ALL
 QUADRANTS. BASED ON A BLEND OF T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB WHICH
 ARE 4.0 AND 3.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
 BEEN INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS. GIVEN THE CURRENT INTENSITY TREND...THE
 CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY. ALL OF THE
 ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR IGOR TO
 INTENSIFY...AND THE FORECAST CALLS FOR IGOR TO BE AN INTENSE
 HURRICANE IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT IGOR COULD
 ALSO BECOME LARGE.   
  
 IGOR IS MOVING TOWARD TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 KNOTS.
 THIS IS BASED ON THE MOTION OF THE EYE-LIKE FEATURE AND CONTINUITY.
 THE CYCLONE IS BEING STEERED BY A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER
 THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...AND THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL
 MODELS TO PERSIST. ON THIS BASIS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR
 A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS OR SO. BY THEN...IGOR
 WILL BE REACHING THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
 WHERE THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAKER...AND BEGIN TO APPROACH A
 BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE
 IGOR TO SLOW DOWN AND BEGIN TO TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
 NORTHWEST. THE TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS AND
 BIASED TO THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. 
   
   
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      11/0900Z 17.1N  37.8W    60 KT
  12HR VT     11/1800Z 17.1N  40.2W    70 KT
  24HR VT     12/0600Z 17.2N  43.1W    75 KT
  36HR VT     12/1800Z 17.4N  46.0W    80 KT
  48HR VT     13/0600Z 17.5N  48.5W    90 KT
  72HR VT     14/0600Z 17.5N  52.5W   100 KT
  96HR VT     15/0600Z 18.5N  55.5W   100 KT
 120HR VT     16/0600Z 20.5N  59.0W   100 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER AVILA
  
 
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