649 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 270859
 TCDEP2
 
 HURRICANE IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122015
 200 AM PDT THU AUG 27 2015
 
 Very cold cloud tops persist near the center of Ignacio, although
 the overall cloud pattern is not very symmetric and no eye is
 present in conventional satellite data. However, microwave images
 show an eye beneath the cirrus clouds, but not well established
 in the low-level channel.  Current intensity estimates range from 75
 to 90 kt, and since the cloud pattern isn't particularly well
 organized, I've elected to go on the low end of the estimates with
 75 kt as the initial intensity.
 
 The initial motion estimate remains 290/11.  A west-northwestward
 motion is expected to continue throughout the forecast period due to
 a strong subtropical ridge to the north of Ignacio producing a deep
 layer of east-southeasterly steering flow.  Models are continuing
 to struggle with the strength of the ridge in the long range
 period, with a variety of solutions from the normally reliable
 global models.  Since the track consensus is virtually unchanged,
 the NHC forecast will stay very close to the previous one and wait
 for a stronger signal before making any significant modifications.
 
 Further strengthening seems likely with Ignacio over the next couple
 of days with light-to-moderate easterly shear, warm water and a
 moist atmosphere.  By days 3 and 5, thermodynamic and oceanic
 conditions are expected to become less favorable, with an increase
 in southwesterly shear, and gradual weakening is expected to occur
 during that time. The official intensity forecast is similar to the
 previous advisory, and is close to the consensus model IVCN.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  27/0900Z 12.6N 138.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
  12H  27/1800Z 13.2N 139.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
  24H  28/0600Z 14.2N 141.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
  36H  28/1800Z 15.1N 143.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
  48H  29/0600Z 15.9N 145.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
  72H  30/0600Z 17.2N 147.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
  96H  31/0600Z 18.5N 150.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 120H  01/0600Z 20.0N 153.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Blake