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 762 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 262041
 TCDEP2
 
 TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122015
 200 PM PDT WED AUG 26 2015
 
 Ignacio continues to strengthen with plenty of tightly curved bands
 around the center and an impressive outflow pattern.  Dvorak
 estimates from TAFB/SAB are both 55 kt, and this will be the initial
 intensity.  The environment appears favorable for further
 intensification with light-to-moderate shear and warm waters for the
 next several days anticipated.  There remains some question as to
 the amount of vertical shear expected, so it is prudent not to show
 rapid intensification at this time.  Still, the most likely scenario
 is continued strengthening, which is in line with the latest
 intensity guidance.  The NHC forecast is raised from the previous
 one and lies above the intensity consensus, just a bit below the
 Florida State Superensemble.  Most of the guidance is showing some
 weakening at long range due to an increase in shear and less
 favorable thermodynamic conditions.
 
 Scatterometer data indicate the center of Ignacio has continued
 moving west-southwestward a little longer than anticipated, although
 recent satellite images suggest a more westward track has started.
 The current motion estimate is 270/10.  A west- northwestward track
 is likely to start overnight and continue for the next several days
 while Ignacio is steered around the subtropical ridge.  There is
 considerable uncertainty about the long-range forecast, with the
 models struggling on how intact the ridge remains to the northeast
 of Hawaii.  On this cycle, the ECMWF and HWRF models have shifted
 well leftward, dragging the consensus a good bit south of the
 previous forecast.  The official forecast is moved in that
 direction, although remaining north of the model consensus at day 5.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  26/2100Z 11.9N 136.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
  12H  27/0600Z 12.3N 137.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
  24H  27/1800Z 13.2N 139.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
  36H  28/0600Z 14.1N 141.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
  48H  28/1800Z 15.0N 143.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
  72H  29/1800Z 16.5N 146.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
  96H  30/1800Z 17.8N 149.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 120H  31/1800Z 19.0N 152.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Blake
 
 
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