604 
 WTPA43 PHFO 280852
 TCDCP3
 
 HURRICANE IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP122015
 1100 PM HST THU AUG 27 2015
  
 IGNACIO CONTINUES TO RESIST INTENSIFICATION...WITH AN ASYMMETRIC CDO 
 SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND OUTFLOW WHICH APPEARS A BIT HINDERED 
 ACROSS ITS EASTERN QUADRANT. THE LLCC LIKELY LIES NEAR THE NORTHWEST 
 EDGE OF THE CDO...WITH DEEPEST CONVECTION TO ITS SOUTHEAST SHOWING 
 MINUS 80 DEGREE CELSIUS CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES. NIGHTTIME CDO 
 POSITIONAL FIXES FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PROBLEMATIC GIVEN THE LACK 
 OF A CONSISTENT INFRARED WARM SPOT SO FAR...BUT A TIMELY 0347 UTC 
 SSMIS PASS GREATLY INCREASES OUR 0600 UTC FIX CONFIDENCE. SUBJECTIVE 
 DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 4.5...77 KT...FROM SAB TO 
 5.0...90 KT...FROM JTWC AND PHFO. CIMMS ADT DERIVED INTENSITY WAS 80 
 KT AT 0430 UTC AND THIS WILL BE OUR INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS 
 ADVISORY.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 295/10 KT...WITH IGNACIO 
 POSSIBLY STARTING TO SLOW AS IT MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK 
 OF A WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TRACK GUIDANCE IS RATHER TIGHTLY 
 PACKED...SHOWING A CONTINUED MOTION INITIALLY TO THE WEST 
 NORTHWEST...THEN NORTHWEST...THROUGH THE FIVE DAY FORECAST PERIOD. 
 ECMWF AND GFS SHIFTED NOTICEABLY TO THE RIGHT...PULLING CONSENSUS TO 
 THE RIGHT AS WELL. HWRF HAS SHIFTED BACK TO THE RIGHT WHILE ALSO 
 INTRODUCING A BIT OF A CLOCKWISE CURVE TO THE TRACK BEYOND 48 HOURS. 
 WE WILL WAIT AT LEAST ONE MORE FORECAST CYCLE TO SEE IF CONSENSUS 
 SETTLES DOWN BEFORE MAKING ANY BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TRACK. 
 THAT SAID...THE FORECAST TRACK FOR THIS ADVISORY WAS NUDGED SLIGHTLY 
 TO THE RIGHT AT 72...96 AND 120 HOURS IN A NOD TO THE GUIDANCE 
 TREND...WHILE REMAINING ALMOST UNCHANGED THROUGH 48 HOURS.
 
 WHILE A SMALL AMOUNT OF EASTERLY SHEAR IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE 
 LOOP...AND PRESENT IN SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE...IGNACIO REMAINS IN 
 A RATHER FRIENDLY ENVIRONMENT WITH SSTS IN EXCESS OF 28 DEGREES 
 CELSIUS. SHIPS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SLOW INTENSIFICATION TO 
 ABOUT 95 KT AT 48 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A WEAKENING TREND AFTERWARDS 
 AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER AND ENCOUNTERS 
 MORE SIGNIFICANT SHEAR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY 
 FOLLOWS THIS TREND...REPRESENTING LITTLE OR NO CHANGE FROM LAST 
 TIME. WHILE FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CHANGE...THIS ONE DEPICTS THE 
 CENTER OF IGNACIO PASSING QUITE CLOSE TO BUT JUST NORTHEAST OF THE 
 MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AS A HURRICANE EARLY NEXT WEEK. 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  28/0900Z 13.9N 143.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
  12H  28/1800Z 14.5N 144.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
  24H  29/0600Z 15.4N 146.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
  36H  29/1800Z 16.2N 147.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
  48H  30/0600Z 17.1N 149.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
  72H  31/0600Z 18.9N 151.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
  96H  01/0600Z 20.9N 154.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 120H  02/0600Z 23.0N 156.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER POWELL
  
 
 
 
 
 
 744 
 WTPA41 PHFO 280852
 TCDCP1
 
 TROPICAL STORM KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP032015
 1100 PM HST THU AUG 27 2015
  
 DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH KILO WEAKENED DURING THE LATE
 AFTERNOON...BUT AN AREA OF VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS HAS DEVELOPED OVER
 AND TO THE NORTH OF THE APPARENT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DURING
 THE LAST FEW HOURS. THE 0600 UTC SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE
 INTENSITY ESTIMATES CAME IN AT T3.5/55KT FROM SAB/JTWC AND T4.0/65KT
 FROM PHFO. UW-CIMSS ADT AND SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE CURRENTLY
 53 KT. HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE ABOVE DATA AND MAINTAINED KILO
 AS A 60 KT TROPICAL STORM WITH THIS ADVISORY.
 
 A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...
 INCLUDING A 0525 UTC SSMIS PASS...LEND REASONABLE CONFIDENCE TO AN
 INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 255/06. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
 TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
 THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH KILO MOVING AROUND THE SOUTHERN
 PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE CURRENT
 WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION IS FORECAST TO TURN DUE WEST ON FRIDAY...THEN
 TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS VERY
 SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND REMAINS NEAR THE TVCN MODEL
 CONSENSUS. BEYOND 48 HOURS...KILO IS FORECAST TO TURN TO THE
 NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...INTO A DEVELOPING
 BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE INDUCED BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
 DIGGING SOUTHWARD NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE. MOST OF THE
 RELIABLE TRACK MODELS REMAIN REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED DURING THE 72
 TO 120 HOUR FORECAST PERIODS...WITH THE ECMWF SOMEWHAT OFF TO THE 
 LEFT AND THE GFDL/HWRF AND GFS ALONG THE RIGHT EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE
 ENVELOPE. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST AT THE LATER TIME PERIODS
 CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IS SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF
 THE TVCN CONSENSUS IN PARTIAL DEFERENCE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. IT
 APPEARS THAT KILO WILL MAINTAIN A RATHER SLOW FORWARD SPEED OF LESS
 THAN 10 KT THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
  
 KILO WILL BE MOVING OVER VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR
 29C AND AMPLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
 UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS AND SHIPS INDICATE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
 SHEAR OF 10-15 KT IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE SYSTEM...WHICH MAKES
 SENSE GIVEN THE ASYMMETRIC DEEP CONVECTION AND LACK OF OUTFLOW IN
 THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. SHIPS INDICATES A SLOW DECREASE IN SHEAR
 DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...WITH LIGHT SHEAR VALUES FORECAST AT DAYS
 3 AND 4. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...
 AND MAKES KILO A HURRICANE IN 12 HOURS. SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS
 FORECAST THEREAFTER...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND
 LGEM GUIDANCE BUT SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW THE GFDL/HWRF AND ICON
 CONSENSUS.
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  28/0900Z 17.1N 169.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
  12H  28/1800Z 17.0N 170.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
  24H  29/0600Z 17.0N 172.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
  36H  29/1800Z 17.3N 173.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
  48H  30/0600Z 17.9N 175.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
  72H  31/0600Z 19.8N 177.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
  96H  01/0600Z 22.0N 178.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 120H  02/0600Z 24.0N 179.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER JACOBSON