Image Department Meteorology
Meteorology_Home Weather_Server News/Seminars
People
Research
Academics Application Contact_Us

Hawaiian_Weather
US_Mainland_Weather
Tropical_Weather
Satellite_Imagery
Radar_Imagery
Marine
Numerical_Models
LAPS
Forecasts
Observations
Archive
Links Disclaimer
Space
SOEST_Home
University_of_Hawaii_Home

 221 
 WTPA43 PHFO 280238
 TCDCP3
 
 HURRICANE IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP122015
 500 PM HST THU AUG 27 2015
  
 ALTHOUGH ITS OVERALL APPEARANCE HAS BECOME A BIT RAGGED IN THE
 SATELLITE IMAGERY ON THE WEST SIDE THIS AFTERNOON...DEEP CONVECTION
 NEAR THE CENTER OF IGNACIO CONTINUES TO PUSH TOPS ABOVE THE -80C
 LEVEL. THE EYE HAS REMAINED CLOUD-FILLED THROUGH THE DAY WITHIN A
 CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. A 2246 UTC GPM PASS SHOWED THE STRONGEST
 CORE CONVECTION SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
 CAME IN AT 77 KT FROM SAB AND JTWC...AND 90 KT FROM PHFO. THE 2330
 UTC CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE WAS ONCE AGAIN CLOSE TO 80 KT. WITH THE
 AVAILABLE ESTIMATES UNCHANGED...THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS
 ADVISORY PACKAGE IS ONCE AGAIN HELD AT 80 KT. A 1932 UTC ASCAT PASS
 WAS USED TO HELP REFINE THE WIND RADII. 
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 290/11 KT. IGNACIO IS MOVING
 SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. THIS WILL
 RESULT IN A SLOWER FORWARD MOTION STARTING TONIGHT. OBJECTIVE AIDS
 FOR THIS PACKAGE CONTINUE TO SHOW A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO
 NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE LATEST GFS HAS
 SHIFTED ITS FORECAST TRACK SOUTHWARD A BIT...POSSIBLY DUE TO A
 WEAKER PROJECTED CYCLONE IN THE MODEL. THE HWRF HAS SHIFTED
 SOUTH AS WELL WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM. THE CURRENT FORECAST MAINTAINS
 THE TRACK OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS CLOSE TO THE
 GFEX THROUGH 72 HOURS...THEN CLOSE TO THE GFS AT 96 AND 120 HOURS.
 
 DESPITE BEING OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 28C AND LIGHT TO
 MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...IGNACIO HAS NOT BEEN ABLE STRENGTHEN
 TODAY. ACCORDING TO SHIPS GUIDANCE...A WINDOW FOR FURTHER
 STRENGTHENING SHOULD EXIST THROUGH 48 HOURS. THE CURRENT FORECAST
 REFLECTS THIS...THOUGH WITH A MAXIMUM INTENSITY LOWERED TO 95 KT DUE
 TO TODAY/S TRENDS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST BEYOND 48
 HOURS...MAINLY DUE TO SLIGHTLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
 INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS IS CLOSE TO THE IVCN CONSENSUS
 THROUGH 48 HOURS AND DSHP BEYOND 48 HOURS. 
  
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  28/0300Z 13.3N 141.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
  12H  28/1200Z 14.0N 143.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
  24H  29/0000Z 14.8N 145.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
  36H  29/1200Z 15.6N 146.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
  48H  30/0000Z 16.4N 147.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
  72H  31/0000Z 18.0N 150.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
  96H  01/0000Z 20.0N 153.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 120H  02/0000Z 22.0N 156.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KODAMA
  
 
 
 
 
Return to the Tropical Systems Page for IGNACIO

Back to main Tropical Weather page




This page is maintained voluntarily by the MKWC and the UHMET faculty, staff, and students.
It was last modified on: Thu, Jul 23 2020 - 2003 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman