733 
 WTPA43 PHFO 272039
 TCDCP3
 
 HURRICANE IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP122015
 1100 AM HST THU AUG 27 2015
  
 HURRICANE IGNACIO PASSED WEST OF 140W LONGITUDE SHORTLY AFTER 1500
 UTC...MAKING IT THE EIGHTH TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE CENTRAL NORTH
 PACIFIC BASIN FOR THE 2015 HURRICANE SEASON. IGNACIO CONTINUES TO
 HAVE A CLOUD-FILLED EYE WITH PERSISTENT CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C
 AND AN OVERALL SYMMETRIC OUTFLOW. A 1642 UTC SSMI/S PASS AND
 LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED THAT THE MOST ACTIVE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN
 OCCURRING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. DVORAK INTENSITY
 ESTIMATES CAME IN AT 77 KT FROM SAB AND JTWC...AND 90 KT FROM PHFO.
 A 1730 UTC CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE WAS CLOSE TO 80 KT. BASED ON A BLEND
 OF THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY WILL BE HELD
 AT 80 KT.
 
 IGNACIO IS MOVING AT 280/11 KT AND APPEARS TO HAVE MOVED A BIT LEFT
 OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. DESPITE THIS SLIGHT WOBBLE...THE
 GENERAL TRACK FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
 THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE CONTINUING TO STEER IT TOWARD THE
 WEST-NORTHWEST...THOUGH WITH A SLOWER FORWARD MOTION STARTING LATER
 TODAY OR TONIGHT. FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...THE DYNAMICAL
 GUIDANCE SPREAD HAS BECOME TIGHTER...WITH THE ECMWF HAVING SHIFTED
 NORTH TO LINE UP CLOSER WITH THE GFS. THE SHIFT APPEARS TO BE DUE TO
 THE ECMWF SHOWING A STRONGER CYCLONE WITH LESS WEAKENING DUE TO
 VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
 FORECAST AND MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 72 HOURS...THEN NUDGED
 NORTHWARD CLOSER TO THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR 96 AND 120 HOURS. 
 
 THE HURRICANE SHOULD REMAIN OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
 LIGHT TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
 DAYS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER 72
 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD BEGIN A GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE INTENSITY
 FORECAST FOR THIS PACKAGE IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
 GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS IGNACIO TO A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT 24
 TO 48 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING AFTERWARD. THIS IS CLOSE
 TO THE IVCN CONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HOURS...THEN SLIGHTLY BELOW IT FROM
 72 HOURS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  27/2100Z 12.9N 140.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
  12H  28/0600Z 13.6N 142.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
  24H  28/1800Z 14.5N 144.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
  36H  29/0600Z 15.3N 145.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
  48H  29/1800Z 16.1N 147.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
  72H  30/1800Z 17.5N 149.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
  96H  31/1800Z 19.5N 152.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 120H  01/1800Z 21.0N 154.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KODAMA