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 460 
 WTNT45 KNHC 271459
 TCDAT5
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  37
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102015
 1100 AM AST SUN SEP 27 2015
 
 Ida is very disorganized this morning.  Visible satellite images
 indicate that the circulation of the depression is becoming
 elongated from north to south, though the low-level center is
 still distinct.  Deep convection is scattered and not organized,
 and this system is barely classifiable using Dvorak metrics.  The
 initial intensity remains 25 kt.
 
 The cyclone is embedded in a dry atmosphere, which is likely
 the reason why convection is limited.  In addition, the interaction
 with a cold front about 350 n mi to the north of Ida is causing the
 circulation to become stretched as described above.  Since the
 frontal boundary is expected to move closer to Ida during the next
 day or so before stalling, it is possible that Ida could open up
 into a trough during that time.  It is also possible that Ida could
 become a remnant low by then if organized deep convection does not
 return.  Based on the negative factors for the tropical cyclone,
 prediction of when Ida becomes a remnant low and dissipates have
 been moved up 24 hours from the previous advisory, and these could
 occur much sooner than forecast.
 
 Ida has jogged a bit to the north recently, but a long-term motion
 is west-northwestward at about 5 kt.  A turn to the west-southwest
 is expected later today, followed by a faster westward motion
 tomorrow and Tuesday as a low to mid-level ridge builds to the north
 of the cyclone. The track guidance has changed little this cycle,
 and only small changes were made to the previous forecast.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  27/1500Z 24.8N  48.4W   25 KT  30 MPH
  12H  28/0000Z 24.4N  49.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
  24H  28/1200Z 23.9N  51.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
  36H  29/0000Z 23.8N  53.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
  48H  29/1200Z 24.1N  55.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  30/1200Z 25.0N  59.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  01/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Cangialosi
 
 
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