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 384 
 WTNT45 KNHC 262032
 TCDAT5
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  34
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102015
 500 PM AST SAT SEP 26 2015
 
 There continues to be little change associated with Ida.  A small
 area of pulsing convection is lingering to the east of the exposed
 low-level center.  The circulation remains well organized, however,
 and mainly consists of a swirl of low-level clouds.  Earlier ASCAT
 data indicated that winds were in the 25-30 kt range, and since the
 cyclone has not changed much since then, the initial intensity is
 held at 30 kt.
 
 The models are quite divergent on the future intensity of Ida.  The
 SHIPS model suggests that the depression could strengthen since the
 shear is expected to lessen during the next 2-3 days.  Conversely,
 most of the dynamical models show little, if any, strengthening
 likely due in part to the abundant dry air near the cyclone.  In
 fact, the latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF models show Ida's
 circulation becoming elongated or degenerating into a trough within
 the next few days when a frontal boundary stalls just to the north
 of the system. The official forecast follows the previous couple of
 advisories in maintaining Ida as a depression through the period,
 however, it would not be surprising if Ida dissipates before then
 like the GFS and ECMWF models suggest.
 
 Ida is gradually turning to the left as predicted, and the latest
 initial motion estimate is now 320/7 kt.  A continued turn toward
 the west and then southwest is predicted during the next
 couple of days as a low- to mid-level ridge builds to the north of
 the cyclone. Thereafter, Ida, or its remnants, is expected to move
 generally westward at a slightly faster forward speed.  Although
 there remains some spread in the guidance, most of the models agree
 on this general theme.  The new official track forecast is a little
 faster than the previous one and remains close to the consensus
 aids.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  26/2100Z 24.4N  47.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  27/0600Z 24.8N  47.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  27/1800Z 24.6N  48.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  28/0600Z 24.1N  49.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
  48H  28/1800Z 23.6N  51.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
  72H  29/1800Z 23.4N  55.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
  96H  30/1800Z 23.9N  58.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
 120H  01/1800Z 24.2N  61.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Cangialosi
 
 
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