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 719 
 WTNT45 KNHC 230252
 TCDAT5
 
 TROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102015
 1100 PM AST TUE SEP 22 2015
 
 Last-light visible imagery, microwave imagery, and a timely ASCAT
 pass around 00Z showed that the center of Ida is located on the
 northeastern side of the larger gyre seen earlier today, just west
 of a new burst of deep convection. This structure is consistent with
 the 30 kt of westerly shear seen in UW-CIMSS satellite analyses. The
 initial intensity is set to 35 kt based on data from the ASCAT pass
 and in agreement with the latest Dvorak classification from TAFB.
 Little change in intensity is expected during the next 48 hours,
 with moderate to strong shear forecast to continue. By 72 hours the
 shear decreases a bit, which should allow for a little
 strengthening. The new NHC intensity forecast is close to a blend of
 the latest SHIPS, LGEM, and HWRF models.
 
 The initial position results in a relocation of the center to the
 northeast of the previous advisory with a slow east-southeastward
 drift as the initial motion. Ida is currently embedded in the base
 of a mid-latitude trough which should result in a continued slow
 east-southeastward motion during the next day or so followed by a
 gradual turn toward the northeast and then the north by 48 hours as
 the trough moves away. A slightly faster north-northwestward motion
 is forecast at days 3 through 5 as a mid-level ridge builds to the
 north of the tropical cyclone. During the latter portion of the
 forecast period much of the guidance has shifted westward, now
 showing a weaker Ida remaining south of the mid-latitude westerlies
 through day 5. The NHC track during this time has been nudged to
 the left of the previous one adjusted for the initial position.
 However, out of respect for continuity the NHC forecast remains
 close to the ECMWF on the eastern side of the guidance envelope and
 is well right of the consensus aids. Given the large shift in the
 guidance this cycle, confidence is quite low in the track forecast
 late in the period.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  23/0300Z 20.9N  46.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  23/1200Z 20.7N  46.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  24/0000Z 20.5N  45.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  24/1200Z 21.0N  45.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
  48H  25/0000Z 21.6N  45.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
  72H  26/0000Z 23.0N  45.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
  96H  27/0000Z 25.0N  46.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 120H  28/0000Z 26.0N  47.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brennan
 
 
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