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 265 
 WTNT41 KNHC 090301
 TCDAT1
 HURRICANE IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112009
 900 PM CST SUN NOV 08 2009
  
 THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF IDA HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE SINCE THE
 AIRCRAFT DEPARTED THE HURRICANE JUST BEFORE 0000 UTC.  DURING THE
 LAST COUPLE OF PASSES THROUGH THE CENTER THE AIRCRAFT MEASURED A
 MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 108 KT AND A SFMR SURFACE WIND
 OF 84 KT. THESE DATA SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 90 KT.  ANOTHER AIR
 FORCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO REACH IDA AROUND 0600 UTC. 
 
 THE LAST FEW AIRCRAFT FIXES PROVIDE A FAIRLY CONFIDENT INITIAL
 MOTION OF 345/12...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE.  IDA IS FORECAST TO
 CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD BETWEEN A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
 WESTERN GULF MEXICO AND A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
 GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA.  THE TRACK MODELS
 APPEAR TO BE IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT ON A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
 TO NORTHWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.  THE 12Z RUNS OF
 THE ECMWF AND UKMET ARE A LITTLE WEST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
 GUIDANCE AND SHOW A TRACK NEAR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA.
 DURING THE FIRST 24-36 HOURS...THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR
 THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BUT IS A LITTLE
 FASTER.  AFTER LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...THE MODELS
 TURN IDA EASTWARD THEN SOUTHEASTWARD AND THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS
 SUIT...BUT DOES NOT SHOW AS SHARP A SOUTHEASTWARD TURN AS SOME OF
 THE GUIDANCE INDICATES.  THE AIR FORCE ALSO FLEW A SURVEILLANCE
 MISSION AROUND AND NORTH OF THE HURRICANE THIS AFTERNOON AND THAT
 DATA SHOULD BE ASSIMILATED INTO THE 0000 UTC MODELS.
 
 IDA IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE COOLER WATERS...AND MOVE INTO A
 COOLER AIRMASS AND INCREASING SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. 
 AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IT WILL ALSO
 LIKELY BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.  HOWEVER...IT IS BECOMING
 MORE LIKELY THAT IDA WILL RETAIN ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
 THROUGH LANDFALL.  THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE FORECASTS GRADUAL
 WEAKENING AND ALL SHOW IDA AROUND HURRICANE STRENGTH AT LANDFALL. 
 THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH THE GUIDANCE AND KEEPS THE
 CYCLONE A HURRICANE WHEN IT REACHES THE COAST.  THIS HAS REQUIRED
 THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN
 GULF COAST. 
    
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      09/0300Z 23.7N  86.7W    90 KT
  12HR VT     09/1200Z 25.8N  87.5W    85 KT
  24HR VT     10/0000Z 28.5N  87.7W    75 KT
  36HR VT     10/1200Z 30.5N  87.1W    65 KT...INLAND
  48HR VT     11/0000Z 31.2N  85.8W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  72HR VT     12/0000Z 30.5N  82.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  96HR VT     13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BROWN
  
 
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