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 007 
 WTNT41 KNHC 072056
 TCDAT1
 TROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112009
 400 PM EST SAT NOV 07 2009
  
 THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF IDA HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY THIS
 AFTERNOON.  THE AIRCRAFT FOUND THE CENTER A LITTLE NORTH OF THE
 EARLIER ESTIMATES...WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CENTRAL DENSE
 OVERCAST.  THE PLANE MEASURED A PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 68
 KT AND A SFMR SURFACE WIND OF 60 KT. THESE DATA SUPPORT AN INITIAL
 INTENSITY OF 60 KT.  CIRRUS ELEMENTS ARE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...
 SUGGESTING MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
 CYCLONE.  HOWEVER IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT SHEAR WILL BE STRONG
 ENOUGH IN THE SHORT-TERM TO INHIBIT SOME ADDITIONAL
 INTENSIFICATION.  IDA WILL BE TRAVERSING THE VERY WARM WATER OF THE
 NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE NOW
 UNANIMOUSLY PREDICTS IDA TO BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN 12
 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT.  AFTER IDA REACHES
 THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND WATERS
 BEGIN TO COOL. THESE FACTORS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MORE STEADY
 WEAKENING.
  
 IDA HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWARD AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED
 TODAY.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A NORTH-
 NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD REMAINS NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS BUT HAS
 BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE EASTWARD PRIMARILY DUE TO THE MORE NORTHWARD
 INITIAL POSITION AND HEADING.  THEREAFTER...THERE REMAINS
 SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE AS TO HOW IDA INTERACTS
 WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT MOVES INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
 GULF OF MEXICO IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE 12Z GFS...ECMWF...AND HWRF
 CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CYCLONE REACHING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN
 ABOUT 72 HOURS AS IT BECOMES AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND
 HAS ONCE AGAIN BEEN SHIFTED NORTHWARD.  THE NEW TRACK NOW SHOWS A
 POSITION JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN 3 DAYS.
 THEREAFTER...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE TURNS THE CYCLONE EASTWARD...AND
 SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  BY 120 HOURS...SOME OF THE GUIDANCE
 SUGGEST THAT THE LOW WILL BE ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND
 THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT PROVIDE A 5-DAY POSITION FOR THIS
 REASON.
  
 MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A LARGE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
 A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE
 TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THIS IS ALREADY CONTRIBUTING TO A LARGE AREA OF
 STRONG WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WHICH IS NOT DIRECTLY
 ATTRIBUTABLE TO IDA.
   
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      07/2100Z 18.9N  84.3W    60 KT
  12HR VT     08/0600Z 20.1N  84.8W    75 KT
  24HR VT     08/1800Z 21.6N  85.8W    70 KT
  36HR VT     09/0600Z 23.8N  87.2W    60 KT
  48HR VT     09/1800Z 26.3N  88.0W    50 KT
  72HR VT     10/1800Z 29.5N  87.3W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  96HR VT     11/1800Z 29.5N  86.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 120HR VT     12/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BROWN
  
 
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