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 214 
 WTNT41 KNHC 050235
 TCDAT1
 TROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112009
 1000 PM EST WED NOV 04 2009
  
 SINCE THE LAST AIRCRAFT PENETRATION OF THE STORM...THE CLOUD PATTERN
 OF IDA HAS REMAINED WELL ORGANIZED WITH A PROMINENT COLD-TOPPED CDO
 AND SOME BANDING FEATURES OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  A RECENT
 SSMIS OVERPASS REVEALED A BANDING-TYPE EYE IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY. 
 DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB BUT THESE
 ARE CONSTRAINED BY THE RULES OF THE TECHNIQUE.  BASED ON THE
 EARLIER AIRCRAFT DATA AND CURRENT ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM...THE
 CURRENT INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KT.  THE UPPER-LEVEL
 OUTFLOW IS WELL DEFINED AND THERE REMAINS A SHORT PERIOD PRIOR TO
 LANDFALL FOR IDA TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE.  RAPID WEAKENING IS
 LIKELY WHEN THE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF
 CENTRAL AMERICA.  IDA IS PROJECTED TO MOVE BACK OVER THE WATERS OF
 THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IN THE
 LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...HOWEVER...BECAUSE
 IT IS NOT CLEAR WHETHER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL SURVIVE ITS
 TRANSIT OVER LAND.
 
 THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION IS NOW NORTHWESTWARD OR 315/6.  IDA IS
 BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW BETWEEN A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE
 NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
 GULF OF MEXICO.  AS THE RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW
 DAYS...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE
 NORTH-NORTHWEST.  MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON
 A GENERAL NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...BUT VARY
 SIGNIFICANTLY IN FORWARD SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND
 OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK.
 
 THE BIGGEST IMPACT OF THIS SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE
 LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES CAUSED BY EXTREMELY
 HEAVY RAINS.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      05/0300Z 12.5N  83.1W    55 KT
  12HR VT     05/1200Z 12.9N  83.6W    60 KT...INLAND
  24HR VT     06/0000Z 13.5N  84.0W    40 KT...INLAND
  36HR VT     06/1200Z 14.3N  84.4W    30 KT...INLAND
  48HR VT     07/0000Z 15.1N  84.6W    25 KT...INLAND
  72HR VT     08/0000Z 17.0N  85.0W    35 KT...OVER WATER
  96HR VT     09/0000Z 19.5N  85.5W    40 KT
 120HR VT     10/0000Z 21.5N  86.5W    45 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS
  
 
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