237 
 WTNT41 KNHC 041457
 TCDAT1
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112009
 1000 AM EST WED NOV 04 2009
  
 THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS
 DEVELOPED ENOUGH ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO NOW BE
 CONSIDERED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT A NEW
 BURST OF THUNDERSTORMS IS OCCURRING NEAR THE CENTER WITH BANDING
 FEATURES BECOMING MORE DISTINGUISHED.  TAFB/SAB DVORAK
 CLASSIFICATIONS WERE 2.0...30 KT...AT 1200 UTC...AND THAT INTENSITY
 WILL BE USED AS THE INITIAL WIND SPEED.  IT WOULD NOT BE
 SURPRISING...HOWEVER...IF THIS SYSTEM WERE ALREADY A TROPICAL STORM
 DUE TO THE IMPROVING SATELLITE PRESENTATION.  THE AIR FORCE RESERVE
 WILL BE IN THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON TO GIVE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE
 WINDS.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION USED FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 315/7...THOUGH IT IS
 UNCERTAIN WHETHER THIS IS TRULY REPRESENTATIVE DUE TO THE CENTER
 REFORMATION THAT APPEARED TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT.  STEERING CURRENTS ARE
 EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE
 DEPRESSION IS CAUGHT BETWEEN A WEAK MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE
 NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
 OF MEXICO.  ALTHOUGH THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE LARGE-SCALE
 PATTERN...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A LARGE AMOUNT OF DIVERGENCE ON
 THE EXPECTED PATH OF THE DEPRESSION.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST
 THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST THEN NORTH AROUND THE
 SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CARIBBEAN RIDGE.  HOWEVER...SOME OF
 THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE...SUCH AS THE ECMWF AND UKMET...SHOW THE
 SYSTEM MOVING CONSIDERABLY SLOWER WITH ONLY A NORTHWARD DRIFT.
 GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE NHC FORECAST IS NEAR BUT SLIGHTLY TO
 THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
  
 ALTHOUGH THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY IN A LIGHT SHEAR AND WARM WATER
 ENVIRONMENT...ITS PROXIMITY TO LAND AND UNCERTAIN TRACK FORECAST
 LEADS TO A COMPLEX INTENSITY FORECAST.  THE GFDL...ONE OF THE ONLY
 MODELS THAT KEEPS THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE...MAKES THE SYSTEM A
 HURRICANE IN A FEW DAYS.  HOWEVER...NEITHER THE SHIPS NOR THE LGEM
 MODELS SHOW MUCH INTENSIFICATION AT ALL.  THESE MODELS SEEM TO BE A
 LITTLE UNDERDONE...AND THE NHC FORECAST WILL BE ON THE HIGHER SIDE
 OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...THOUGH NOT AS HIGH AS THE GFDL.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      04/1500Z 11.6N  82.0W    30 KT
  12HR VT     05/0000Z 11.9N  82.3W    45 KT
  24HR VT     05/1200Z 12.5N  83.0W    50 KT
  36HR VT     06/0000Z 13.0N  83.5W    50 KT
  48HR VT     06/1200Z 13.5N  84.0W    35 KT...INLAND
  72HR VT     07/1200Z 14.5N  84.5W    25 KT...INLAND
  96HR VT     08/1200Z 15.5N  85.0W    25 KT...INLAND
 120HR VT     09/1200Z 18.0N  85.5W    35 KT...OVER WATER
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN