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 664 
 WTNT44 KNHC 170846
 TCDAT4
  
 TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092013
 500 AM AST TUE SEP 17 2013
  
 HUMBERTO CONTINUES TO GO THROUGH CYCLES OF HAVING DEEP CONVECTION
 NEAR ITS CENTER TO BEING SHEARED WITH ALL THE CONVECTION DISPLACED
 WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  AS OF RIGHT NOW...CONVECTION
 HAS RE-DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER...AND THERE ARE SIGNS THAT THE
 SHEAR MAY BE RELAXING.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT FOR
 THIS ADVISORY BASED ON A CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 2.5 FROM
 TAFB AND EARLIER ASCAT DATA.  THE LOWEST PRESSURE MEASURED BY A
 DROPSONDE FROM A RECENT NASA GLOBAL HAWK MISSION WAS 1009 MB WITH A
 SURFACE WIND OF 15 KT...INDICATING THAT THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS
 PROBABLY A LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED.
  
 THE WAXING AND WANING OF CONVECTION HAS CAUSED THE SURFACE CENTER TO
 JUMP AND MEANDER FOR THE PAST 12 TO 24 HOURS.  HOWEVER...IT APPEARS
 THAT HUMBERTO IS NOW MOVING AGAIN...AND A LONGER-TERM AVERAGE
 YIELDS AN ESTIMATED MOTION OF 020/4 KT.  THE STORM IS LOCATED TO
 THE SOUTHWEST OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES
 AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A HIGH-AMPLITUDE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING
 OFF THE EAST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA.  THE RESULTANT STEERING FLOW
 IS FORECAST TO PUSH HUMBERTO GENERALLY TO THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT
 48 HOURS OR SO...AND THEN THE CYCLONE WILL ACCELERATE TOWARD THE
 NORTHEAST BEGINNING ON DAY 3 AS THE TROUGH GETS CLOSER.  THE HWRF
 IS THE MAIN OUTLIER IN THE GUIDANCE SUITE...SHOWING A MUCH SLOWER
 MOTION AND A TRACK TO THE EAST BY DAY 5.  THE REST OF THE TRACK
 MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT...AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK
 FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA TO DOWNPLAY
 THE INFLUENCE OF THE HWRF SOLUTION.
  
 THE CIRCULATIONS OF HUMBERTO AND A NEARBY MID-/UPPER-LEVEL LOW
 ARE BECOMING COLLOCATED...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE VERTICAL SHEAR NEAR
 THE CYCLONE TO DECREASE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THEREFORE...
 GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DURING
 THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...MORE OR LESS IN LINE WITH THE INTENSITY
 CONSENSUS.  HUMBERTO IS NOW FORECAST TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL
 CYCLONE BY DAY 4...AND EVEN THOUGH THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER
 MUCH COLDER WATER BY THAT TIME...BAROCLINIC INFLUENCES COULD ALLOW
 STRENGTHENING TO CONTINUE A BIT LONGER.  A 5-DAY POSITION IS STILL
 SHOWN FOR CONTINUITY...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT HUMBERTO COULD BE
 ABSORBED BY ANOTHER LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY THAT TIME.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  17/0900Z 27.8N  42.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  17/1800Z 28.9N  43.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  18/0600Z 29.8N  44.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  18/1800Z 30.7N  43.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
  48H  19/0600Z 31.9N  43.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
  72H  20/0600Z 35.5N  40.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
  96H  21/0600Z 45.0N  33.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 120H  22/0600Z 54.0N  26.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BERG
  
 
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