603 
 WTNT44 KNHC 132041
 TCDAT4
  
 TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092013
 500 PM AST FRI SEP 13 2013
 
 DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN STRUGGLING TO REDEVELOP NEAR HUMBERTO IN
 THE FACE OF SOME RATHER STRONG SHEAR.  DVORAK CONSTRAINTS SUGGEST
 AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF ABOUT 45 KT...THOUGH THIS COULD BE REFINED
 A BIT AFTER THE NEXT SCATTEROMETER PASS.  AN EXTREMELY LARGE UPPER-
 LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS CONTINUING TO SHEAR 
 HUMBERTO.  THIS SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO ABATE FOR A COUPLE OF
 DAYS...AND IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE HUMBERTO DROP TO A
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT SOME POINT DURING THAT TIME.  HOWEVER...THE
 GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST THAT THE STORM WILL FIND A MORE
 FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING...AND MOST OF THE RELIABLE
 GUIDANCE SHOWS HUMBERTO AS A HURRICANE AGAIN BY DAY 5.  THE
 INTENSITY FORECAST IS AGAIN REDUCED IN THE SHORTER TERM...BUT IS
 KEPT THE SAME AT THE END.  
 
 THE MOTION HAS SHIFTED A BIT FARTHER TO THE LEFT...NOW 290/10. 
 THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
 WHILE A STRONG RIDGE STEERS THE STORM BASICALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. 
 THERE CONTINUE TO BE LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES AS TO HOW FAST HUMBERTO
 RECURVES OUT TO SEA...WITH THE GFS/GEFS SUGGESTING A MUCH FASTER
 TRACK THAN MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS.  OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE IS
 TRENDING A LITTLE TO THE SOUTHWEST...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
 SHIFTED IN THAT WAY...FAIRLY CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE FLORIDA STATE
 SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  13/2100Z 25.0N  32.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  14/0600Z 25.4N  33.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  14/1800Z 26.3N  36.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  15/0600Z 27.3N  38.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
  48H  15/1800Z 28.2N  40.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
  72H  16/1800Z 30.4N  43.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
  96H  17/1800Z 32.5N  45.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 120H  18/1800Z 36.0N  45.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BLAKE