820 
 WTNT44 KNHC 102031
 TCDAT4
  
 TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092013
 500 PM AST TUE SEP 10 2013
  
 ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED A BIT...THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
 HAS BEEN EXPANDING WITH A CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE
 SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION.  DVORAK INTENSITY
 ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE T4.0/65 KT AND T3.5/55 KT...
 RESPECTIVELY...SO THE INITIAL WINDS ARE RAISED TO 60 KT.  THE MAIN
 IMMEDIATE NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING APPEARS TO BE
 DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF HUMBERTO THAT MAY
 BE GETTING INTO THE INNER CORE...BUT OTHERWISE LOW VERTICAL SHEAR
 AND WARM WATERS FAVOR AT LEAST SLOW INTENSIFICATION FOR ANOTHER 36
 HOURS OR SO.  AFTER THAT TIME...HUMBERTO WILL BE STRADDLING THE 26C
 SST ISOTHERM...BUT IT WILL ALSO BE MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF
 20-30 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  WEAKENING IS THEREFORE
 ANTICIPATED AFTER DAY 2.  THE INTENSITY MODELS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE
 ON A PEAK INTENSITY SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 70 AND 80 KT...WITH THE
 STATISTICAL GUIDANCE NOT NEARLY AS AGGRESSIVE AS IT WAS YESTERDAY. 
 SUBSEQUENTLY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE REQUIRED TO THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST.
 
 HUMBERTO HAS TURNED NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 310/7
 KT.  THE HIGH TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM IS NOW WEAKENING...AND THE
 EVOLVING PATTERN WILL ALLOW HUMBERTO TO TURN NORTHWARD BY 36 HOURS. 
 THEN...JUST AS SHARPLY AS THE CYCLONE WILL BE TURNING NORTHWARD...
 IT WILL TURN SHARPLY WESTWARD BY DAY 5 WHEN A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
 REBUILDS NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
 BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO
 THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA...AND THE
 FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  10/2100Z 15.0N  28.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
  12H  11/0600Z 15.9N  28.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
  24H  11/1800Z 17.6N  29.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
  36H  12/0600Z 19.6N  29.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
  48H  12/1800Z 21.5N  29.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
  72H  13/1800Z 24.0N  31.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
  96H  14/1800Z 24.5N  36.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 120H  15/1800Z 24.5N  41.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BERG