734 
 WTNT44 KNHC 091444
 TCDAT4
  
 TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092013
 1100 AM AST MON SEP 09 2013
  
 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT HUMBERTO STILL HAS AN
 ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...WITH THE CENTER NEAR THE EASTERN
 EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY TWO ASCAT
 PASSES FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING...BUT THE SCATTEROMETER DATA ALSO
 INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 40 KT.  THIS
 ESTIMATE IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY AN AVERAGE OF THE DVORAK ESTIMATES
 FROM TAFB AND SAB.
 
 HUMBERTO IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A STRONG AZORES HIGH AND
 CONTINUES TO MOVE 280/10 KT.  THE TRACK FORECAST THINKING HAS NOT
 CHANGED.  THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 48
 HOURS...GIVING WAY TO TWO CLOSED MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOWS THAT WILL
 DEVELOP NORTH OF THE CANARY ISLANDS AND OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. 
 THIS PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE HUMBERTO TO TURN SHARPLY NORTHWARD BY DAY
 3.  AFTER THAT TIME...HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN BUILDS NEAR THE
 AZORES...FORCING HUMBERTO TO TURN BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY DAY
 5.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH THE FIRST 48
 HOURS BUT THEN DIVERGE WITH THE GFS...FLORIDA STATE
 SUPERENSEMBLE...GFDL...AND HWRF INDICATING A SHARPER TURN TOWARD
 THE NORTH.  THE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A SLIGHT NORTHEASTWARD SHIFT FROM
 THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THE LATTER END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
 
 THE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AFFECTING HUMBERTO IS EXPECTED TO ABATE
 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...AND THE THERMODYNAMICS APPEAR
 SUFFICIENTLY CONDUCIVE TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION DURING
 THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
 MOST AGGRESSIVE STRENGTHENING...BUT THAT IS COUNTERED BY THE
 HWRF...GFDL...AND FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE WHICH EITHER DO NOT OR
 JUST BARELY MAKE HUMBERTO A HURRICANE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL
 LIES BETWEEN THESE TWO SCENARIOS AND IS JUST A TAD HIGHER THAN THE
 INTENSITY CONSENSUS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS GENERALLY AN UPDATE
 OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS UNCHANGED FROM DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  09/1500Z 13.6N  24.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  10/0000Z 13.9N  25.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
  24H  10/1200Z 14.5N  27.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
  36H  11/0000Z 15.5N  28.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
  48H  11/1200Z 17.3N  29.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
  72H  12/1200Z 21.5N  30.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
  96H  13/1200Z 24.5N  31.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 120H  14/1200Z 26.0N  34.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BERG/PASCH