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 819 
 WTNT44 KNHC 130856
 TCDAT4
 HURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092007
 500 AM EDT THU SEP 13 2007
  
 THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HUMBERTO CROSSED THE TEXAS COAST JUST EAST
 OF HIGH ISLAND AROUND 0700 UTC THIS MORNING.  AN AIR FORCE
 RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY COMPLETED ITS MISSION...AND ON THE
 FINAL LEG OUT A MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL...850 MB...WIND OF 98 KT WAS
 REPORTED EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...OR AROUND 75 KNOTS AT THE
 SURFACE...AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 986 MB. SINCE LANDFALL...
 DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES THAT HUMBERTO HAS MAINTAINED AN IMPRESSIVE
 EYE FEATURE WITH THE STRONGEST BAND OF CONVECTION JUST TO THE NORTH
 OF THE CENTER.  BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
 WILL BE 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...AND HUMBERTO WILL NOW BEGIN ITS
 WEAKENING TREND OVER LAND.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 025/7.   HUMBERTO IS BEING STEERED AROUND THE
 NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
 MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS.  A NORTH-NORTHEAST TO NORTHEAST
 MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.
 THEREAFTER...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
 THE TROUGH WILL  CONTINUE EASTWARD AND REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO
 KEEP HUMBERTO OR ITS REMNANTS LINGERING AROUND THE EAST CENTRAL
 GULF COAST IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS
 THIS REASONING AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THIS
 SCENARIO COULD POSE A SERIOUS RAINFALL THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
 LOUISIANA...SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS AND INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
 MISSISSIPPI.
  
 THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WEST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS HAS BEEN
 DISCONTINUED...AND THE REMAINING HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM
 WARNING ALONG THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS WILL LIKELY BE
 DOWNGRADED OR LOWERED LATER THIS MORNING.
  
   
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      13/0900Z 29.9N  94.1W    75 KT
  12HR VT     13/1800Z 30.9N  93.5W    55 KT...INLAND
  24HR VT     14/0600Z 32.2N  92.0W    30 KT...INLAND
  36HR VT     14/1800Z 32.7N  90.2W    25 KT...INLAND
  48HR VT     15/0600Z 32.3N  88.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     16/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA
  
 
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