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 702 
 WTNT44 KNHC 130244
 TCDAT4
 TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092007
 1100 PM EDT WED SEP 12 2007
  
 HOUSTON WSR-88D VELOCITY DATA INDICATE THAT HUMBERTO HAS
 INTENSIFIED.  SOME ISOLATED SPOTS OF 65 TO 70 KT WINDS AROUND THE
 3000 FT LEVEL HAVE BEEN OBSERVED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONE
 CENTER.  THIS CORRESPONDS TO A SURFACE WIND ESTIMATE OF ABOUT 55 KT
 WHICH WILL BE USED FOR THE ADVISORY INTENSITY.  RADAR REFLECTIVITY
 DATA INDICATE THE FORMATION OF A PARTIAL EYEWALL. SOME ADDITIONAL
 STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR BEFORE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL EARLY ON
 THURSDAY...AND WINDS COULD BE APPROACHING HURRICANE FORCE OVER A
 SMALL AREA NEAR HUMBERTO'S CENTER WHEN IT REACHES THE COAST.
 
 BASED ON RADAR FIXES THE CURRENT MOTION...030/05 IS A LITTLE TO THE
 RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  HUMBERTO IS MOVING AROUND THE
 NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
 TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD OVER TEXAS SHOULD CAUSE A NORTH-
 NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
 HOURS.  BEYOND THAT TIME...THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
 TROUGH COULD BYPASS HUMBERTO...OR ITS REMNANTS.  SHOULD THIS
 OCCUR...THE SYSTEM COULD LINGER NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AFTER
 48 HOURS.  BASED MAINLY ON THE CURRENT MOTION...THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THAT FROM THE
 PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE.
 
 HEAVY RAINFALL IS A CONCERN WITH THIS SLOW-MOVING TROPICAL CYCLONE. 
 SOME LOCATIONS COULD EXPERIENCE PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF 10 TO 15
 INCHES.
   
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      13/0300Z 29.0N  94.6W    55 KT
  12HR VT     13/1200Z 30.1N  93.9W    50 KT...INLAND
  24HR VT     14/0000Z 31.6N  92.7W    30 KT...INLAND
  36HR VT     14/1200Z 32.5N  91.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  48HR VT     15/0000Z 32.5N  90.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     16/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER PASCH
  
 
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