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 402 
 WTNT44 KNHC 122053
 TCDAT4
 TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092007
 500 PM EDT WED SEP 12 2007
  
 THE SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENTATION OF HUMBERTO HAS BECOME BETTER
 DEFINED DURING THE DAY TODAY...WITH A SPIRAL CONVECTIVE BAND
 WRAPPING FROM THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ALL THE WAY AROUND TO THE CORE
 SOUTH OF THE CENTER.  MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS REPORTED BY THE
 RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DO NOT YET REFLECT THIS INCREASE IN
 ORGANIZATION...BUT SFMR DATA...AS WELL AS A COUPLE OF SHIP
 REPORTS...SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF ABOUT 45 KT. THERE WERE A FEW
 HIGHER SFMR WIND REPORTS IN THE CONVECTIVE BAND IN THE NORTHEAST
 QUADRANT...BUT TWO DROPSONDES IN THAT BAND DID NOT CONFIRM THOSE
 HIGHER WIND ESTIMATES. THE DEPRESSION IS IN A LIGHT-SHEAR
 ENVIRONMENT WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...AND GIVEN THE CURRENT
 ORGANIZATION...ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED.  THE
 PRIMARY INHIBITING FACTOR FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE SHORT PERIOD
 OF TIME THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE OVER WATER...AND THE EXPECTATION IS
 THAT HUMBERTO WILL NOT HAVE ENOUGH TIME OVER WATER TO REACH
 HURRICANE STRENGTH.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/5.  THIS TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE
 RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS MOTION...AND HUMBERTO MAY HAVE ROUNDED THE
 WESTERN PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF
 MEXICO SLIGHTLY EARLIER THAN EXPECTED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS
 BEEN SHIFTED JUST A LITTLE BIT EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND
 IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE UKMET AND GFDL MODELS.  A
 MID-LATITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
 IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND
 INDUCE A FURTHER TURN OF THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.  MODEL
 GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE REMNANTS OF HUMBERTO COULD
 DETACH FROM THE WESTERLIES AFTER 48 HOURS AND LINGER NEAR THE GULF
 COAST.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      12/2100Z 28.6N  94.9W    45 KT
  12HR VT     13/0600Z 29.4N  94.7W    55 KT
  24HR VT     13/1800Z 31.0N  93.9W    30 KT...INLAND
  36HR VT     14/0600Z 32.3N  92.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  48HR VT     14/1800Z 33.0N  90.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     15/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER FRANKLIN
  
 
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