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 549 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 312036
 TCDEP4
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092016
 200 PM PDT SUN JUL 31 2016
 
 Visible satellite imagery showed a low-level cloud swirl emerge
 from the convective canopy after the previous advisory was issued.
 However, for now it appears that this was not the primary center of
 the cyclone, as it has dissipated and low cloud lines continue to
 suggest a center closer to the convection.  Given the somewhat
 disorganized nature of the system for now, the initial intensity is
 held at 30 kt in agreement with the latest Dvorak estimate from
 SAB.
 
 The SHIPS model analysis shows about 10 kt of north-northwesterly
 shear over the depression, which is consistent with the convection
 being displaced mainly to the south and east of the center.  This
 shear is expected to relax a little, but the cyclone will only be
 over SSTs above 26C for the next 36 hours or so.  This should allow
 for some strengthening, followed by gradual weakening to post-
 tropical status over cool waters and in a dry, stable atmospheric
 environment in about 3 days.  The new NHC intensity forecast is
 similar to the previous one, and close to the IVCN consensus aid.
 
 The uncertainty in the center position leads to an uncertain
 initial motion estimate of 295/09, which is based in part on
 continuity.  Despite this, the track forecast reasoning remains
 relatively straightforward,  as a mid-level ridge is expected to
 build westward to the north of the cyclone through the forecast
 period.  This should result in a west-northwestward heading and
 an increase in forward speed over the next 48 hours.  After that
 time, the track should gradually bend back toward the west as the
 increasingly shallow cyclone comes under the influence of the
 low-level trade winds.  The NHC track forecast is about 40 n mi
 north of the previous one due to the adjustment in the initial
 position, but is otherwise near the middle of the guidance envelope
 and the TVCN multi-model consensus.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  31/2100Z 15.4N 121.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  01/0600Z 15.9N 122.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  01/1800Z 16.7N 124.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  02/0600Z 17.8N 127.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  02/1800Z 19.1N 129.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
  72H  03/1800Z 21.1N 135.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  96H  04/1800Z 22.4N 140.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  05/1800Z 23.0N 146.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brennan
 
 
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