277 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 040242
 TCDEP1
 HURRICANE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 8 PM PDT FRI SEP 03 2004
  
 CURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 5.5... 5.0... AND 4.0 FROM
 AIR FORCE... SAB... AND TAFB RESPECTIVELY. THE CONTINUED WARMING OF
 CLOUD TOPS COUPLED WITH THE ARTIFICIALLY HIGH CONSTRAINTS PLACED ON
 THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE FOR WEAKENING EAST PACIFIC SYSTEMS...IS THE
 BASIS FOR DECREASOMG THE INTITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE TO 75 KT ON
 THIS ADVISORY. HOWARD HAS BECOME COMPLETELY EMBEDDED IN COOLER SEA
 SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH LAST VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATING A FAIRLY
 BROAD AREA OF MARINE LAYER STRATUS CLOUDS WRAPPING IN TOWARD THE
 SYSTEM CENTER FROM THE WEST.  THIS FURTHER SUPPORTS THE EXPECTED
 RAPID WEAKENING OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS.
  
 INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335 DEGREES AT 10 KTS AND IS EXPECTED TO
 GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS...WITH VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL
 STEERING DOMINATING THE TRACK FORECAST BEYOND 48 HOURS. THE
 CONSENSUS OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST AS BOTH INDICATE A WNW MOTION AT LESS THAN 5 KT BEYOND 48
 HOURS AS THE REMNANT LOW CENTER DRIFTS WESTWARD ON DAYS 4 AND 5. 
  
 FORECASTER LAWRENCE/HOLWEG
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      04/0300Z 22.1N 116.6W    75 KT
  12HR VT     04/1200Z 23.4N 117.3W    60 KT
  24HR VT     05/0000Z 24.8N 118.0W    50 KT
  36HR VT     05/1200Z 26.0N 118.5W    40 KT
  48HR VT     06/0000Z 27.0N 119.0W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
  72HR VT     07/0000Z 27.5N 120.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     08/0000Z 27.8N 121.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     09/0000Z 28.0N 122.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
  
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