605 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 020825
 TCDEP1
 HURRICANE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 2 AM PDT THU SEP 02 2004
 
 DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS A BEAUTIFUL PIN HOLE EYE HAS APPEARED
 AND IS RINGED BY VERY COLD CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES.  DVORAK
 INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 90 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA...AND 102 KT
 FROM TAFB. ALSO...THE THREE HOURLY AVERAGED ODT VALUE IS 5.2 FROM
 TAFB. WITHOUT A DOUBT THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN AND CONTINUES TO BE IN
 A RAPID DEEPENING PROCESS.   WE HAVE PROBABLY BEEN SLIGHTLY BEHIND
 ON OUR OFFICIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATES.  THEREFORE...THE INITIAL WIND
 SPEED FOR THIS PACKAGE IS SET AT 100 KTS.  THIS MAKES HOWARD A
 CATEGORY 3 ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON SCALE.  EVERYTHING LOOKS GOOD FOR
 CONTINUED STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE HOWARD BEGINS
 TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF COOLER SSTS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE
 TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.  WEAKENING BEGINS AFTER 24 HOURS.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 305/8.  HOWARD CONTINUES TO PUSH
 AGAINST A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE
 CYCLONE.  THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
 DAYS AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES INTO CALIFORNIA.  WIDE
 DIVERGENCE CONTINUES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
 FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS OUT TO 48 HOURS AND THEN TURNS THE SYSTEM
 TOWARD THE NORTH WHERE IT WILL BECOME A REMNANT LOW NEAR DAY FIVE.  
  
 FORECASTER JARVINEN
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      02/0900Z 17.6N 113.0W   100 KT
  12HR VT     02/1800Z 18.2N 114.1W   110 KT
  24HR VT     03/0600Z 19.1N 115.2W   115 KT
  36HR VT     03/1800Z 20.0N 116.3W   110 KT
  48HR VT     04/0600Z 21.0N 117.2W    95 KT
  72HR VT     05/0600Z 23.5N 118.5W    60 KT
  96HR VT     06/0600Z 26.2N 119.2W    35 KT...DISSIPATING
 120HR VT     07/0600Z 29.0N 119.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
  
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