064 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 080258
 TCDEP5
 
 HURRICANE HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102015
 800 PM PDT FRI AUG 07 2015
 
 The hurricane continues to intensify at a rapid pace.  An earlier
 AMSR-2 microwave overpass revealed that Hilda's inner core was
 extremely compact.  In addition, visible and infrared geostationary
 satellite imagery indicates that the system's eye has become better
 defined, and the areal extent of cold cloud-top temperatures
 surrounding the eye has increased over the past several hours.  The
 current intensity estimate is raised to 90 kt, in accordance with a
 Dvorak estimate from TAFB.  There is strong upper-level outflow
 associated with the cyclone, particularly over the western
 semicircle of the circulation.
 
 Hilda's intensification is forecast to continue over the next 12 to
 24 hours, while vertical wind shear is expected to remain weak.  In
 about 48 hours, the hurricane is forecast to begin encountering
 stronger shear associated with an upper-tropospheric trough near the
 Hawaiian Islands. Global models predict that the shear will increase
 greatly beyond 72 hours.  Therefore a weakening trend is forecast to
 commence in 48 hours, with rapid weakening likely in the latter part
 of the forecast period.  The official intensity forecast is in good
 agreement with the latest SHIPS and LGEM guidance.
 
 The initial motion estimate is slightly north of due west, or
 280/13 kt.  The track forecast reasoning has not changed much since
 the last advisory.  Hilda's track should gradually bend toward the
 west-northwest and northwest over the next 96 hours or so, as the
 cyclone moves to the south of a mid-level ridge and approaches a
 cyclonic circulation just to the north of the Hawaiian Islands.
 Near the end of the forecast period, the rapidly weakening system
 should become a more shallow circulation, and turn more toward the
 west within the low- to mid-tropospheric flow.  The official track
 forecast is in good agreement with the latest dynamical model
 consensus.
 
 Since Hilda will be moving into the central Pacific basin very
 soon, future information on this system will be issued by the
 Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  08/0300Z 13.0N 139.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
  12H  08/1200Z 13.4N 141.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
  24H  09/0000Z 14.1N 143.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
  36H  09/1200Z 14.9N 145.4W  110 KT 125 MPH
  48H  10/0000Z 15.8N 147.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
  72H  11/0000Z 17.8N 149.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
  96H  12/0000Z 19.5N 151.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 120H  13/0000Z 20.6N 153.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Pasch