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 732 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 061449
 TCDEP5
 
 TROPICAL STORM HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102015
 800 AM PDT THU AUG 06 2015
 
 The cyclone's cloud pattern has significantly increased in
 organization since late yesterday. There is now a small central mass
 of deep convection, with a band on the northern side of the
 circulation.  The center, according to an 1132 UTC SSM/I pass, is
 also directly underneath this central convection, and the same pass
 indicates increasing symmetry to the overall convective structure.
 Satellite classifications from 1200 UTC were T2.0/30 kt and T2.5/35
 kt from SAB and TAFB, respectively.  The initial intensity estimate
 is set at the higher end of these estimates (35 kt), based on the
 even greater organization seen in satellite imagery since that time.
 
 The initial motion is toward the west or 275/11. The general
 forecast scenario is for a subtropical ridge north of the cyclone to
 steer Hilda westward for the next couple of days with a slight bend
 toward the west-northwest after 36 hours.  In about 72 hours, the
 cyclone should move around the western end of the ridge and
 encounter a break in this feature at the end of the forecast period.
 This pattern should cause Hilda to turn northwestward with a
 decrease in forward speed by 96 hours.  The GFS-based guidance shows
 a stronger ridge and a west-southwestward to westward track during
 the next 2 to 3 days, while the ECMWF has a weaker ridge and a
 track farther north. The official forecast is closer to the ECMWF
 solution and near but faster than the previous one through 72 hours.
 Overall, the NHC forecast lies to the right of the multi-model
 consensus, which is dominated by the GFS guidance. After 72 hours,
 the official track is near the multi-model consensus but not as far
 west as the GFS/ECMWF model solutions.
 
 Large-scale dynamic and thermodynamic factors are forecast to be
 conducive for intensification through for the next 72 hours or so,
 except for a somewhat drier lower to middle troposphere along
 Hilda's path in 2 to 3 days.  When the cyclone gains latitude late
 in the forecast period, it should begin to weaken due to increasing
 southwesterly shear associated with a mid- to upper-level trough
 expected to be near the longitude of Hawaii.  The official intensity
 forecast is higher than the previous one through 72 hours and is
 higher than the multi-model consensus, but little change was made to
 the intensity forecast late in the period.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  06/1500Z 12.7N 132.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  07/0000Z 12.9N 133.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  07/1200Z 13.0N 135.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
  36H  08/0000Z 13.5N 137.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
  48H  08/1200Z 14.1N 139.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
  72H  09/1200Z 15.4N 144.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
  96H  10/1200Z 17.1N 146.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 120H  11/1200Z 18.8N 149.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Kimberlain
 
 
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