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 843 
 WTPA45 PHFO 280240
 TCDCP5
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP112009
 500 PM HST THU AUG 27 2009
 
 VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE INCREASINGLY ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
 CIRCULATION CENTER /LLCC/ OF HILDA MOVED SOUTHWEST FROM THIS 
 MORNING/S POSITION...APPARENTLY FOLLOWING THE LIMITED DEEP 
 CONVECTION THAT WAS SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER THIS MORNING. THE
 ERRATIC MOTION OBSERVED OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO IS EVIDENCE OF A
 SHALLOW SYSTEM THAT IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED...AND 00Z SATELLITE
 ESTIMATED CURRENT INTENSITIES FROM BOTH SAB AND PHFO HAVE DROPPED
 TO 1.5 / 25 KT...WHILE JTWC DEEMED THE SYSTEM TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY.
 GIVEN THESE FIXES AND THE TREND TOWARD WEAKENING SEEN ON 
 SATELLITE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 25 KT WITH 
 THIS ADVISORY.  
 
 WITH THE RECENT SOUTHWESTWARD JOG...A LONGER TERM MOTION FOR HILDA
 IS NEARLY DUE WEST...AS THE SYSTEM APPARENTLY TOOK A TURN TOWARD
 THE WEST-NORTHWEST LAST NIGHT. HILDA WILL CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY
 TOWARD THE WEST UNTIL DISSIPATION OCCURS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...AS IT
 WILL BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF A MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
 CENTERED NORTHWEST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...AND SOUTH OF A DIGGING
 UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE ISLANDS. THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP SOME
 SEMBLANCE OF MODERATE NORTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM DURING WHAT 
 IS LEFT OF IT/S LIMITED EXPECTED LIFETIME.   
 
 HILDA/S LLCC APPEARS TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING TO AN OPEN
 TROUGH...AND WITH SHEAR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...CONVECTION WILL
 STRUGGLE TO PERSIST OVER THE CENTER. RE-INTENSIFICATION APPEARS
 VERY UNLIKELY...DESPITE SUFFICIENTLY HIGH SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST
 TRACK...AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON HILDA FROM THE
 CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER. 
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      28/0300Z 13.5N 156.1W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
  12HR VT     28/1200Z 13.4N 157.8W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  24HR VT     29/0000Z 13.6N 160.1W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  36HR VT     29/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 
 FORECASTER BIRCHARD
 
 
 
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